Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
The MMA flyweight bout features Allan Nascimento and Cody Durden, both 34 years old, set for UFC Vegas 110 at the UFC Apex. Nascimento, standing 5'8" with a 69" reach, has a record of 21-6-0, emphasizing striking precision and defense, landing 2.64 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy while absorbing 1.96. Durden is 5'7" with a 67" reach, has a 17-8-1 record, and is more volume-oriented, connecting 3.44 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy but absorbing more strikes (4.35/min). Both show 50% strike defense. Nascimento has a low takedown accuracy (24%) and defense (30%), while Durden boasts solid wrestling, cardio, and durability. Durden is coming off back-to-back losses (1-4 in last five fights), while Nascimento is on a 3-fight win streak (4-1 last five). This fight pits Nascimento's accuracy and defense against Durden's volume and wrestling control.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nascimento shows effective striking economy and solid defense, with recent momentum (3 wins in last 4 fights). Durden, despite higher striking volume, has suffered recent setbacks and absorbs more strikes, relying on wrestling and cardio to outwork opponents.
- The fighters have no recorded head-to-head bouts prior to this match, making this encounter a fresh tactical challenge.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. Both fighters compete at flyweight (125 lbs) with similar ages and conditioning.
- Nascimento is motivated by a 3-fight win streak aiming to maintain momentum, while Durden seeks to rebound from two consecutive losses, likely increasing his urgency and effort.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Allan Nascimento: -260, Cody Durden: +220 | Allan Nascimento | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Allan Nascimento -1.5 rounds: -120, Cody Durden +1.5 rounds: +100 | Nascimento -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Allan Nascimento -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Allan Nascimento is favored to win due to superior striking efficiency, recent form, and defense capabilities. Durden’s wrestling and pressure could pose a challenge, but Durden’s lower striking defense and recent performances reduce his likelihood of victory. Expect a tactical fight with Nascimento likely to control range and pacing.
Predicted Score: Nascimento wins by decision or late stoppage (3 rounds)