Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-31
  • Time: 12:45 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

This is a flyweight (125 lbs) preliminary bout at UFC Vegas 107, featuring Jafel Filho (16-3-0, 32 years old, 5'7") against Allan Nascimento (20-6-0, 33 years old, 5'8"). Both fighters are orthodox and experienced, with Nascimento holding a minor height and reach advantage. Filho is more accurate defensively but Nascimento is more efficient offensively, landing a higher percentage of significant strikes per minute (3.21 vs 2.36, 61% vs 41% accuracy). Both have comparable defense percentages, but Nascimento's superior output and efficiency are notable.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Nascimento has a higher overall win record and superior striking efficiency. Filho has a respectable record but relies more on defensive acumen.
  • No prior UFC or documented head-to-head bouts between these two fighters.
  • No major injuries reported for either fighter going into this match.
  • Venue is a controlled environment (UFC Apex); both are experienced, but Nascimento's recent performances show slightly higher momentum.
  • Both fighters are positioned for a step up in the flyweight division; a win is crucial for either to advance.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jafel Filho: +130, Allan Nascimento: -155 Allan Nascimento ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Allan Nascimento: -3.5 (+130), Jafel Filho: +3.5 (-180) Allan Nascimento -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 2.5: -160, Under 2.5: +124 Over 2.5 Rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Allan Nascimento -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Allan Nascimento is favored to win due to a higher striking output, better accuracy, and a slight reach advantage. However, Filho's defensive skills could make the fight close, but Nascimento's volume and efficiency are likely to be decisive factors.

Predicted Score: Allan Nascimento to win by unanimous decision (29-28 or 30-27), with the fight going over 2.5 rounds.


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