Match Analysis: Cody Durden vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The matchup features Allan Nascimento (-300 favorite) vs. Cody Durden (+250 underdog) at UFC Vegas 110. Nascimento, a 34-year-old orthodox fighter with a 21-6 career record, is on a 3-1 recent winning run, showing strong grappling and defensive striking. Durden, also 34, is a southpaw with a 17-8-1 record but has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and generally allows more significant strikes per minute. The bout's dynamics suggest Nascimento has the edge in control and efficiency despite Durden's higher strike volume.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nascimento is 4-1 in his last five fights, displaying solid grappling and striking defense (absorbing 1.96 significant strikes per minute, defending 50%). Durden has a poor recent form at 1-4 and absorbs a higher rate of significant strikes (4.35 per minute).
• This is a first-time matchup with no direct history. Styles favor Nascimento's control and efficiency over Durden's volume punching.
• No known recent injuries reported for either fighter that would significantly impact performance.
• Fight takes place at UFC Apex with no apparent external disadvantages to either fighter; motivation appears equal as both are veterans seeking wins.
• Nascimento is on a positive streak with momentum, likely more motivated to continue his rise. Durden is motivated to rebound from consecutive losses but is fighting under pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +250, away: -300	Away – Allan Nascimento	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Nascimento -1.5: -160, Durden +1.5: +140	Nascimento -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 73%
Over/under	over 2.5: -118, under 2.5: -102	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 19%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Allan Nascimento to win via decision or late finish.

Predicted Score: Nascimento wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – November 1, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Alice Ardelean vs. Montserrat Ruiz Prediction	Under 2.5	210	102%
Billy Elekana vs. Kevin Christian Prediction	Under 1.5	124	39%
Cody Durden vs. Allan Nascimento Prediction	Under 2.5	-102	19%

Combined Odds: +1275 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $275.04

Match Analysis: Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 12:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

This is a flyweight (125 lbs) preliminary bout at UFC Vegas 107, featuring Jafel Filho (16-3-0, 32 years old, 5'7") against Allan Nascimento (20-6-0, 33 years old, 5'8"). Both fighters are orthodox and experienced, with Nascimento holding a minor height and reach advantage. Filho is more accurate defensively but Nascimento is more efficient offensively, landing a higher percentage of significant strikes per minute (3.21 vs 2.36, 61% vs 41% accuracy). Both have comparable defense percentages, but Nascimento's superior output and efficiency are notable.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nascimento has a higher overall win record and superior striking efficiency. Filho has a respectable record but relies more on defensive acumen.
• No prior UFC or documented head-to-head bouts between these two fighters.
• No major injuries reported for either fighter going into this match.
• Venue is a controlled environment (UFC Apex); both are experienced, but Nascimento's recent performances show slightly higher momentum.
• Both fighters are positioned for a step up in the flyweight division; a win is crucial for either to advance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jafel Filho: +130, Allan Nascimento: -155	Allan Nascimento	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Allan Nascimento: -3.5 (+130), Jafel Filho: +3.5 (-180)	Allan Nascimento -3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -160, Under 2.5: +124	Over 2.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Allan Nascimento is favored to win due to a higher striking output, better accuracy, and a slight reach advantage. However, Filho's defensive skills could make the fight close, but Nascimento's volume and efficiency are likely to be decisive factors.

Predicted Score: Allan Nascimento to win by unanimous decision (29-28 or 30-27), with the fight going over 2.5 rounds.