Match Analysis: Jayde Sheeley vs Aline David – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino, Niagara Falls, New York
Game Overview
This is a women's strawweight bout at Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) 223 between Jayde Sheeley (3-2) and Aline David (3-1). The match is scheduled for five three-minute rounds with both fighters weighing in around 115 lbs. Sheeley, a police officer and daughter of K-1 fighter Scott Sheeley, has a grappling advantage with two submission wins but recently lost a decision in the same arena. David, fighting out of Los Angeles and a black belt in Muay Thai, is coming off a highlight KO victory with a 12-second front kick knockout and has demonstrated striking power and finishing ability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jayde Sheeley has a balanced record with a strong submission game, while Aline David has more recent momentum with a 12-second KO 'of the year' contender and back-to-back wins, including strikes leading to a KO and submission. Sheeley has more fights but less recent dominance.
- No direct previous matchups noted between Sheeley and David.
- No reported injuries or weight issues for either fighter; both made weight properly at 115.2 and 115.4 lbs respectively.
- The bout takes place in New York at a major LFA event. Sheeley has home region support from Ohio and perhaps more experience with the venue, but David trains at a well-regarded LA gym with a strong striking background. No travel or significant external stress reported.
- Sheeley seeks to rebound from a recent decision loss on the same stage to re-establish her LFA standing. David aims to build on her highlight-reel KO and continuing upward trajectory with a second consecutive stoppage win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aline David: -300, Jayde Sheeley: 220 | Aline David | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Aline David -1.5 rounds: -110, Jayde Sheeley +1.5 rounds: -110 | Aline David -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -115 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aline David -99% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -99% |
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Given David’s striking superiority, recent form, and finishing ability versus Sheeley’s grappling and experience, the prediction favors an Aline David win by knockout or decision. The momentum and finishing power likely give David an edge despite Sheeley’s durability and submission skill.
Predicted Score: Aline David wins by KO/TKO in Round 3