Match Analysis: Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 11:05 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Perth, Australia
Game Overview
Strawweight UFC prelim fight between Thailand's Muay Thai expert Loma Lookboonmee and Brazil's aggressive grappler Alexia Thainara.
Key Factors to Consider
- Loma Lookboonmee has strong striking volume and improved wrestling but is undersized. She recently secured a decision win with 3 takedowns. Alexia Thainara is a forward pressure striker with aggressive grappling, coming off a submission win in her UFC debut.
- No prior head-to-head matches between these fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight held in Perth, Australia, neutral ground with no hometown advantage. Both fighters motivated to advance in the UFC strawweight division.
- Alexia coming off a high-profile submission win and riding momentum. Loma looks to prove herself beyond being undersized but faces a physically imposing opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexia Thainara -245, Loma Lookboonmee +202 | Alexia Thainara | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Alexia Thainara -1.5 (approximate line), -110 | Alexia Thainara -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -260, Under 2.5 rounds +214 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexia Thainara -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexia Thainara at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alexia Thainara to win via decision
Predicted Score: Alexia Thainara wins by decision after three rounds