Match Analysis: Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 11:05 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Perth, Australia
Game Overview
The UFC Strawweight bout between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara features a clash of contrasting styles: Loma’s precise Muay Thai striking and solid takedown defense against Alexia’s aggressive high-volume striking and relentless grappling. Loma, a Thai fighter (10-3), has a size disadvantage but brings technical consistency and scrambling ability. Alexia, a Brazilian striker (12-1) standing taller with longer reach, is coming off a first-round submission win over Molly McCann and carries strong momentum into the fight.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alexia Thainara exhibits a more aggressive striking approach, landing 6.73 strikes per minute but with a lower accuracy of 40%. Loma Lookboonmee relies on efficient, precise Muay Thai striking with solid defensive grappling and good fight pace control. Loma’s recent unanimous decision win over Istela Nunes showcases her technical prowess and control.
- This is the first meeting between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
- No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight is part of the UFC Perth prelims, with both fighters motivated to climb the Strawweight rankings. Loma is slightly disadvantaged by size but has home crowd energy and Muay Thai clinch expertise. Alexia faces pressure to maintain her winning streak and prove herself at higher competition levels.
- Loma Lookboonmee aims to extend her winning streak and improve her UFC Strawweight ranking, leveraging her technical skills and experience. Alexia Thainara looks to maintain momentum after a high-profile submission win and enter elite Strawweight contender status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexia Thainara: -245, Loma Lookboonmee: 202 | Loma Lookboonmee win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Loma Lookboonmee +1.5 rounds: -150, Alexia Thainara -1.5 rounds: +130 | Loma Lookboonmee +1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -260, Under 2.5 rounds: 214 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexia Thainara 96% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexia Thainara at 96% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite being the underdog in betting odds, Loma Lookboonmee’s combination of technical striking, takedown defense, and fight IQ gives her a strong chance to outpoint Alexia Thainara, who fights aggressively but with less precision. The fight is expected to go to decision with Loma edging out a victory through superior control and defense.
Predicted Score: Loma Lookboonmee wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)