Match Analysis: Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 2:45 AM UTC
- Location: UFC 315 (Venue not explicitly stated in search results)
Game Overview
The upcoming UFC 315 flyweight bout between Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva is highly anticipated, featuring contrasting styles. Grasso is known for her striking, particularly with her hands, while Silva excels in leg-based attacks. Silva enters with an 18-5-1 MMA record and undefeated 6-0 UFC record, positioning this fight as a critical step toward a potential title shot. Both fighters are expected to deliver dynamic striking exchanges and grappling battles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alexa Grasso shows strong takedown accuracy (40%) and moderate takedown defense (54%), relying heavily on powerful hand strikes. Natalia Silva has an undefeated UFC streak and demonstrates effective leg strikes and overall diverse skill sets.
- No direct head-to-head bouts between Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva recorded, making this a first-time matchup with high stakes for both fighters.
- No injury reports or indications of physical setbacks for either fighter have been found in the recent coverage.
- The fight takes place at UFC 315, a major event which adds pressure and motivation. Fan anticipation and social media buzz indicate high excitement and support for both fighters.
- Natalia Silva is highly motivated to secure a victory to make a strong case for a title shot. Alexa Grasso is motivated to showcase her striking and prove her skills against a rising contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexa Grasso: 205, Natalia Silva: -250 | Natalia Silva | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Alexa Grasso: 3.5 -140, Natalia Silva: -3.5 100 | Natalia Silva -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -475, Under 2.5: 325 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Natalia Silva -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Natalia Silva at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Silva’s undefeated UFC record and momentum, combined with Grasso’s striking prowess but less dominant grappling defense, Natalia Silva is favored to win a competitive striking and grappling battle. Expect a strategic, possibly close decision or late stoppage win for Silva.
Predicted Score: Natalia Silva wins by decision or late-round stoppage, 3 rounds to 0 or stoppage in round 3