Match Analysis: Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 2:45 AM UTC
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal
Game Overview
The UFC 315 women’s flyweight bout between former champion Alexa Grasso and rising contender Natalia Silva is a high-stakes matchup. Grasso, a skilled boxer with submission prowess, aims to bounce back from a recent loss to Valentina Shevchenko to reclaim top contender status. Silva, undefeated in the UFC with a 6-0 streak, relies on athleticism, southpaw long-range striking, and a high pace, seeking to solidify her claim for a title shot. The fight is expected to showcase contrasting styles—Grasso's pressure and hand striking versus Silva's kicks and range control.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alexa Grasso has a record of 16-4-1 and a history of championship experience including a previous title win over Shevchenko, though she recently suffered a decisive loss to Shevchenko. Natalia Silva holds an 18-5-1 record and has been unbeaten in the UFC (6-0), including a dominant win over former champion Jessica Andrade, showing strong momentum and confidence.
- No prior head-to-head matches exist between Grasso and Silva, making this fight a fresh tactical battle between a former champion and a surging contender.
- No notable injuries reported for either fighter leading up to this match.
- The fight takes place at the Bell Centre in Montreal, a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. Both fighters are highly motivated, with Silva chasing a title shot and Grasso seeking to regain top contender status.
- Natalia Silva is highly motivated, viewing this fight as critical for a title shot opportunity. Alexa Grasso is equally determined to rebound from a previous loss and reestablish herself as a top-tier UFC flyweight contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexa Grasso: +205, Natalia Silva: -250 | Natalia Silva | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Alexa Grasso +3.5: -140, Natalia Silva -3.5: +100 | Natalia Silva -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -475, Under 2.5 rounds: +325 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Natalia Silva -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Natalia Silva at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Natalia Silva is favored to win based on current UFC performance momentum, undefeated streak, and recent form, with a probability edge due to range control and athleticism. Alexa Grasso’s experience and striking power keep the fight highly competitive, but Silva’s pace and recent dominance make her the likely victor.
Predicted Score: Natalia Silva wins by unanimous decision after a hard-fought 3-round contest