Match Analysis: Alex Perez vs Asu Almabaev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 6:15 PM UTC
- Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
Game Overview
Alex Perez (#8 ranked flyweight) returns from injury to face Kazakhstan's Asu Almabayev (#9 ranked flyweight) in a featured UFC Qatar main card bout. This is a critical matchup for both fighters, with Perez looking to reassert himself after his layoff while Almabayev seeks to solidify his ranking. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds in the flyweight division (125 lbs).
Key Factors to Consider
- Alex Perez (25-9 UFC record, 7-5 in UFC) returns after an injury absence with solid technical striking fundamentals. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 46% accuracy but absorbs 3.20 significant strikes per minute while defending 58% of incoming strikes. Asu Almabayev (22-3 overall, 5-1 UFC) is a powerful wrestler with methodical control who lands 2.16 significant strikes per minute but connects at 54% accuracy. He absorbs only 1.75 significant strikes per minute while defending 52% of incoming strikes. Almabayev is converting 43% of his takedown attempts with 50% takedown defense.
- Perez has a significant striking volume advantage (4.19 vs 2.16 strikes per minute), making him the more active striker. However, Almabayev's accuracy (54% vs 46%) and lower strike absorption (1.75 vs 3.20) suggest superior striking defense and efficiency.
- Almabayev is the clear grappling specialist. He attempts more submissions (1.5 per 3 rounds vs Perez's 0.8 per 15 minutes) and actively pursues takedowns at a high rate (43% conversion). Perez must maintain his distance and utilize striking to avoid wrestling exchanges.
- Perez's return from injury could present cardio and ring rust concerns, though his determination to make a statement suggests proper preparation. This is a significant test of his conditioning and durability.
- Both fighters have motivation to climb the rankings. Perez needs a dominant comeback win, while Almabayev seeks to establish himself among top contenders.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Perez +170 | Almabayev -205 | Asu Almabayev wins | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Perez +3.5 (-150) | Almabayev -3.5 (110) | Almabayev -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-200) | Under 2.5 (154) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw -100% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 57% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 57% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Asu Almabayev is favored to win this matchup. While Alex Perez possesses superior striking volume and technical variety, Almabayev's grappling dominance, lower strike absorption rate, and defensive efficiency create a suffocating game plan. If Almabayev can successfully implement his wrestling pressure and control the pace on the ground, he can neutralize Perez's striking advantages. However, Perez's comeback narrative and elevated striking output could lead to a competitive fight that goes the distance.
Predicted Score: Asu Almabayev via submission (Rear-Naked Choke or Guillotine) in Round 2 (approximately 3:45 mark) OR Almabayev via Unanimous Decision (29-28 across all three judges). Most likely outcome: Almabayev wins by submission Round 2 (45% confidence) or decision (35% confidence). Perez knockout/submission win (20% confidence).