Match Analysis: Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Alex Hernandez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: San Antonio, Texas

Game Overview

Lightweight bout between Carlos Diego Ferreira and Alexander Hernandez with Ferreira as a slight favorite by odds. Hernandez is fighting at home in San Antonio, which could influence performance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ferreira has shown more consistency in his recent performances, with several wins disrupting top contenders and good striking and grappling balance. Hernandez, while talented, has been less consistent and coming off some mixed results.
• Neither fighter appears to have prior head-to-head matchups, making this fight a fresh contest without direct past data.
• No significant injury reports have been noted for either fighter prior to the bout.
• Hernandez fighting in his hometown of San Antonio could provide motivation and fan support, but Ferreira is experienced in handling hostile environments.
• Hernandez is motivated to defend his home turf and make a statement in front of a home crowd, but Ferreira is motivated by climbing lightweight rankings and redemption after previous setbacks.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: -105, Carlos Diego Ferreira: -115	Carlos Diego Ferreira	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Alex Hernandez +3.5: -195, Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5: 140	Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5	★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -135, Under 2.5: 105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez 8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Carlos Diego Ferreira to win by decision

Predicted Score: Carlos Diego Ferreira wins by unanimous decision after three rounds

Match Analysis: Alex Hernandez vs Chase Hooper – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago

Game Overview

Chase Hooper, a younger and taller southpaw fighter with a strong striking accuracy and defense, faces Alexander Hernandez, an experienced orthodox fighter with respectable striking output but lower defense efficiency.

Key Factors to Consider

• Hooper holds a strong recent overall record of 16-3-1 with a 51% striking accuracy and better damage absorption. Hernandez is 16-8-0, landing slightly fewer strikes with lower accuracy but better strike defense percentage.
• No known previous head-to-head matchups between the fighters, making form and style matchup critical.
• No significant injury reports available for either fighter entering this bout.
• Fight location is neutral and indoors; no external motivational factors such as home crowd advantage affecting either competitor.
• Hooper, at 25, is in prime development and looking to solidify contender status. Hernandez, at 32, seeks to re-establish momentum but faces age and reach disadvantages.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: +250, Chase Hooper: -300	Chase Hooper	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Chase Hooper -1.5 rounds: +220, Alex Hernandez +1.5 rounds: -260	Alex Hernandez +1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -115	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chase Hooper -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline favoring Chase Hooper to win due to superior overall metrics and youth advantage, with the fight expected to stay competitive but lean towards Hooper's strategic style.

Predicted Score: Chase Hooper wins by decision in 3 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Geoffrey Neal vs. Carlos Prates Prediction	Carlos Prates Win	-245	★★★★☆ 76% (76%)
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction	Michal Oleksiejczuk Win	-238	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Alex Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper Prediction	Chase Hooper Win	-300	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +167

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $53.33

Match Analysis: Kurt Holobaugh vs Alex Hernandez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 15, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh face off in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night 254. Both fighters have extensive experience, with Hernandez recently ending a two-fight skid and Holobaugh returning to form after a UFC stint.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alexander Hernandez has a record of 15-8, with recent success against Austin Hubbard. Kurt Holobaugh boasts a 21-8 record, with a notable win over Kaynan Kruschewsky. Both fighters are evenly matched in terms of weight class.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, which may favor neither fighter specifically due to its neutral setting.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, with Hernandez looking to build momentum and Holobaugh aiming to improve his UFC record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: -198, Kurt Holobaugh: 164	Alex Hernandez	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Alex Hernandez: -3.5 120, Kurt Holobaugh: 3.5 -165	Kurt Holobaugh +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -215, Under: 2.5 165	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Predicted Outcome

Alexander Hernandez is favored to win due to his recent form and betting odds.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Alex Hernandez