Match Analysis: Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Alex Hernandez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas

Game Overview

Lightweight MMA bout featured in the undercard of Noche UFC at Frost Bank Center. Alexander Hernandez returns to his hometown of San Antonio on a hot winning streak, having recently knocked out Chase Hooper in the first round. Carlos Diego Ferreira brings a strong grappling skill set and experience in UFC lightweight competition. This fight pits Hernandez's striking and momentum against Ferreira's well-rounded grappling and veteran savvy.

Key Factors to Consider

• Hernandez has been performing impressively with recent finishes including a first-round knockout in his last fight. Ferreira's recent form shows resilience and experience, though without a recent knockout streak. Hernandez's momentum and striking advantage contrast with Ferreira's grappling strengths.
• There are no records of previous fights between the two, making this encounter a first-time matchup with both fighters bringing unique skill sets and motivations.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout, indicating both are in full training and physical condition for fight night.
• The fight is taking place in Hernandez's hometown, giving him a potential morale boost and crowd support advantage. The event is large with significant UFC attention, increasing fighter motivation.
• Hernandez motivated by fighting at home and extending his hot streak; Ferreira motivated to prove veteran worth and counter Hernandez's hometown advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: -105, Carlos Diego Ferreira: -115	Alex Hernandez	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Alex Hernandez: 3.5 -195, Carlos Diego Ferreira: -3.5 140	Alex Hernandez +3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -135, Under: 2.5 105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Carlos Diego Ferreira 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alexander Hernandez to win via knockout or decision, leveraging home crowd support and recent knockout momentum to outstrike and avoid grappling troubles. Ferreira’s grappling will test Hernandez but is less likely to impose given Hernandez's improved takedown defense and aggression.

Predicted Score: Hernandez wins by KO or decision within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Alex Hernandez vs Chase Hooper – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago

Game Overview

Lightweight UFC prelims bout between Alex Hernandez and Chase Hooper at UFC 319. Hooper enters with a 16-3-1 record, known for solid striking and defensive acumen. Hernandez holds a 16-8 record, experienced but with a lower defensive strike percentage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chase Hooper has a better strike accuracy (51%) and absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (2.96) compared to Hernandez, who lands 40% of his strikes but absorbs 4.62 per minute. Hooper is slightly taller (6'1 vs 5'9) with a longer reach (74" vs 72") which may influence striking range.
• No recorded previous fights between Alex Hernandez and Chase Hooper, making their styles and recent form the primary comparison.
• No public injury reports for either fighter ahead of the match, suggesting both are in optimal condition.
• Fight is held at United Center in Chicago, a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. The match is prelims, possibly affecting fighter motivation and crowd dynamics.
• Both fighters are motivated to improve standings in the lightweight division. Hooper, younger at 25, seeks to maintain upward momentum; Hernandez, aged 32, looks to secure a critical career win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: 250, Chase Hooper: -300	Chase Hooper to win	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Chase Hooper -1.5 rounds: -110, Alex Hernandez +1.5 rounds: -110	Chase Hooper to win within 2 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -115	Fight to go Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chase Hooper -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chase Hooper is favored to win due to superior striking defense, reach advantage, and recent stronger form.

Predicted Score: Chase Hooper wins by decision or late TKO around round 3

Match Analysis: Kurt Holobaugh vs Alex Hernandez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 15, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh face off in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night 254. Both fighters have extensive experience, with Hernandez recently ending a two-fight skid and Holobaugh returning to form after a UFC stint.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alexander Hernandez has a record of 15-8, with recent success against Austin Hubbard. Kurt Holobaugh boasts a 21-8 record, with a notable win over Kaynan Kruschewsky. Both fighters are evenly matched in terms of weight class.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, which may favor neither fighter specifically due to its neutral setting.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, with Hernandez looking to build momentum and Holobaugh aiming to improve his UFC record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alex Hernandez: -198, Kurt Holobaugh: 164	Alex Hernandez	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Alex Hernandez: -3.5 120, Kurt Holobaugh: 3.5 -165	Kurt Holobaugh +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -215, Under: 2.5 165	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Predicted Outcome

Alexander Hernandez is favored to win due to his recent form and betting odds.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Alex Hernandez