Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Nantes, France

Game Overview

Aleksandr Chizov (-164) faces Claudio Pacella (+134) in a PFL Europe 3 lightweight bout, where Chizov opens as favorite due to more consistent recent performances and favorable odds movement.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chizov has shown stronger recent form with multiple wins in PFL and professional bouts, whereas Pacella has a mixed record and fewer high-profile wins.
• No recorded previous encounter between Claudio Pacella and Aleksandr Chizov, making direct matchup data unavailable.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the matchup.
• Fight takes place in Nantes, France, a neutral venue for both, minimizing home advantage. Both fighters are competing in PFL Europe, indicating similar preparation levels.
• Chizov's recent upward career trajectory in PFL Europe likely increases his motivation and confidence; Pacella has incentives but less momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chizov -164 / Pacella +134	Aleksandr Chizov	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Chizov -1.5 (+130), Pacella +1.5 (-150)	Aleksandr Chizov -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds (-110), Under 2.5 rounds (-110)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aleksandr Chizov -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aleksandr Chizov at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aleksandr Chizov to win by straight victory on the moneyline, with a decision inside the distance expected under 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Aleksandr Chizov wins by decision or finish within 2 rounds

Match Analysis: Mark Ewen vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: The SSE Arena, Belfast, Northern Ireland

Game Overview

Mark Ewen, representing Scotland with a 100% finish rate in his wins, faces Latvia's Aleksandr Chizov in the PFL Europe 1: 2025 Regular Season main card. Ewen debuts in the tournament format, while Chizov brings a 10-3 professional record. The match promises high stakes and aggressive styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mark Ewen enters with a 6-0 record and 100% finish rate, indicating a strong, aggressive style. Aleksandr Chizov, with a 10-3 record, brings experience and versatility, having faced a higher level of competition.
• No prior head-to-head encounters between the fighters have been documented.
• No injury reports have been found for either fighter ahead of this match.
• This is Ewen's debut in the PFL tournament format, which could add pressure, while Chizov may use his experience in international competition as an advantage.
• Ewen is motivated to make an impact in his PFL debut, while Chizov aims to leverage his experience to advance further in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mark Ewen (-350), Aleksandr Chizov (+225)	Mark Ewen	High (75%)

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mark Ewen -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Mark Ewen at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mark Ewen is the favorite according to odds and his undefeated, high-finish record. However, Chizov's experience and well-rounded skills could pose a significant challenge, making this a closer fight than the odds suggest. Ewen is predicted to win by stoppage, but Chizov's resilience may push the fight to later rounds.

Predicted Score: Mark Ewen by TKO/KO in Round 2