Match Analysis: Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 7:50 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night Venue (unspecified)
Game Overview
Alessandro Costa is the strong favorite against Alden Coria based on recent form, odds history, and expert consensus. Costa's power and finishing ability have been demonstrated with early finishes highlighted in betting markets. Coria, while experienced, is positioned as the underdog with less probability of winning.
Key Factors to Consider
- Costa has maintained strong recent form with consistent winning odds movement indicating betting market confidence, including multiple early KO/TKO and submission finishes in round 1 available as prop odds.
- No documented direct head-to-head fights between Alessandro Costa and Alden Coria, requiring reliance on form and general skill comparisons.
- No reported injuries to either fighter that would materially affect performance or betting evaluation.
- Sharp money movement has favored Alden Coria on some books, indicating value perception, but overall market consensus still heavily favors Costa.
- Costa's position as a favored rising contender and motivation to establish dominance in UFC likely higher; Coria seeking to prove value as an underdog.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Costa: -410, Coria: +320 | Alessandro Costa | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Costa -3.5 (-195), Coria +3.5 (140) | Alessandro Costa -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-115), Under 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alessandro Costa -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alessandro Costa to win via moneyline
Predicted Score: Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in Round 1