Match Analysis: Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 7:50 PM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Game Overview
The flyweight bout between Alessandro Costa and Alden Coria is part of the Noche UFC event prelims, scheduled for September 13, 2025, at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Costa holds a 14-4 record while Coria has a 10-3 record with one no contest. Both fighters have solid grappling and striking skills, but Costa's greater experience and recent form have made him a clear favorite in betting markets.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alessandro Costa has demonstrated consistent performance with a 14-4 record, showing strong striking and grappling balance. Alden Coria, at 10-3 (1 NC), has been less consistent and faces a step up in competition against Costa's experience.
- No prior head-to-head fights have been recorded between Alessandro Costa and Alden Coria.
- No recent or reported injuries have affected either fighter leading into this bout.
- The fight is part of a Noche UFC event held in San Antonio, which might slightly favor Costa as he is the betting favorite and possibly more acclimated to the event setting. No reported external disruptions or controversies.
- Costa aims to solidify his position as a top contender in the flyweight division, while Coria is motivated to upset the odds and climb the ranks by defeating a more established opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alessandro Costa: -410, Alden Coria: 320 | Alessandro Costa | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Alessandro Costa: -195, Alden Coria: 140, spread_line: 3.5 | Alessandro Costa -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -115, line: 2.5 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alessandro Costa -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alessandro Costa is predicted to win by decision or late stoppage due to his experience edge and higher confidence in technique and conditioning.
Predicted Score: Alessandro Costa wins by decision or late TKO in round 3