Match Analysis: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alcorn State Braves – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field

Game Overview

Mississippi State Bulldogs, a strong 2-0 SEC team, host the Alcorn State Braves, an FCS side coming off a 0-2 start. The Bulldogs are overwhelming favorites and expected to dominate this mismatch.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mississippi State is undefeated and dominant both straight up and against the spread this season. Alcorn State is winless and has struggled on both sides of the ball in their first two games.
• There is limited recent head-to-head data due to divisional differences, but Mississippi State’s higher-tier competition and success strongly favor them.
• No significant injuries reported for Mississippi State impacting their depth or starters; Alcorn State has no major noted injuries either, but their roster depth remains inferior.
• Home field advantage for Mississippi State with a large crowd support expected at Davis Wade Stadium. Weather conditions are normal with no constraints.
• Mississippi State looks to maintain a perfect start against weaker competition, crucial for confidence and rankings. Alcorn State aims to avoid a winless start but faces a very low ceiling given talent gap.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mississippi State -100000, Alcorn State +8000	Mississippi State	★★★★★ 98%
Spread	Mississippi State -39.5 (-110), Alcorn State +39.5 (-110)	Mississippi State -39.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)	Over 52.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 52.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mississippi State to win convincingly covering the large spread

Predicted Score: Mississippi State 56 – Alcorn State 13