Match Analysis: Alain Van De Merckt vs Borys Dzikowski – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 4:00 AM UTC
- Location: KSW 109, Warsaw
Game Overview
This KSW 109 lightweight bout features Alain Van De Merckt (8-1) vs Borys Dzikowski (4-2). Van De Merckt is undefeated in recent fights, with a high finishing rate via submissions and knockouts. Dzikowski carries a solid but less dominant 4-2 record, with more KO/TKO victories than submissions. Both fighters are evenly matched on weight (~84 kg) and height (Van De Merckt slightly shorter).
Key Factors to Consider
- Van De Merckt is on a strong winning streak with an 8-1 record, showing versatility in finishing fights (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions). Dzikowski has a respectable 4-2 record with the majority of wins by KO/TKO but no submission wins, suggesting less grappling dominance.
- No previous matchup between the two fighters has been recorded, so no direct H2H history is available.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight.
- Fight takes place at KSW 109 in Warsaw, Dzikowski's home country Poland, which may provide slight crowd support. Van De Merckt has international experience but may be facing some crowd adversity.
- Van De Merckt aims to maintain his near-perfect record in a higher profile organization, likely highly motivated. Dzikowski, with two recent losses and fighting at home, will seek to rebound decisively for standing in KSW.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alain Van De Merckt: -200, Borys Dzikowski: +150 | Alain Van De Merckt | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Alain Van De Merckt -1.5 rounds: -120, Borys Dzikowski +1.5 rounds: +100 | Alain Van De Merckt -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alain Van De Merckt -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alain Van De Merckt at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alain Van De Merckt to win by submission
Predicted Score: Alain Van De Merckt wins by submission in round 2