Match Analysis: Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 12:45 AM UTC
• Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC

Game Overview

Vancouver native Aiemann Zahabi, a rising force in the UFC bantamweight division, faces former interim title challenger Marlon 'Chito' Vera. Zahabi is on a six-fight win streak, showing significant improvement in striking defense and cardio. Vera is a durable, high-level action fighter known for his durability, volume, and dangerous submissions, but he is returning off a tough title-fight loss and possible physical toll. The odds reflect Zahabi as the favorite, but Vera's experience and finishing ability make this a compelling stylistic matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Zahabi is 6-0 in his last six—impressive for a 37-year-old; Vera is 3-3 in his last six, with losses coming against the division's elite. Zahabi lands more significant strikes per minute (4.42 to Vera's 4.27) and defends better (69% defense to Vera's 50%). Vera absorbs more strikes (5.37/minute to Zahabi's 4.13/minute), suggesting a defensively sound Zahabi could win exchanges[1].
• No prior H2H. Vera's edge is in big-fight experience; Zahabi's rising momentum and technical improvements are the counterpoint.
• No public injury reports for either fighter. Vera's long career and recent grueling bouts introduce some uncertainty.
• Zahabi fights in his home country, likely drawing crowd support. Vera has fought on big stages, so pressure is familiar.
• Zahabi seeks to prove he's an elite contender and finally break into the top 10; Vera needs to rebound impressively to stay relevant in the title picture.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Zahabi -122, Vera +102	Aiemann Zahabi	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Zahabi +3.5 -230, Vera -3.5 +165	Aiemann Zahabi +3.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -375, Under 2.5 +270	Under 2.5 rounds	★★☆☆☆ 45%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aiemann Zahabi 6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 155%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 155% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aiemann Zahabi, riding momentum and with a defensive edge, wins a competitive, high-paced striking battle. Vera's durability and finishing threat keep it close, but Zahabi's technical growth, cardio, and home crowd advantage are likely decisive.

Predicted Score: Aiemann Zahabi def. Marlon Vera by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Match Analysis: José Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-11
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC 315, Venue TBD

Game Overview

The upcoming bantamweight MMA bout features veteran José Aldo with a record of 32-9 facing the younger contender Aiemann Zahabi who holds a record of 12-2. The fight is scheduled for UFC 315 on May 11, 2025. Aldo, with extensive experience and a notable knockout power, seeks to reclaim momentum after recent mixed results, whereas Zahabi arrives with a strong winning streak and high confidence from recent victories.

Key Factors to Consider

• José Aldo has displayed resilience with 3 wins in his last 5 fights, but recent performances show some decline including a split decision loss at UFC 307. Aldo’s fights tend to last over 3 rounds on average, indicating endurance but possibly less finishing power recently. Zahabi has been more consistent lately with only 2 losses overall, and his fights generally end quicker, averaging 2.5 rounds, highlighting his aggressiveness and finishing ability.
• This will be their first professional meeting, so direct head-to-head data is unavailable. Aldo’s extensive experience (41 matches) versus Zahabi’s fewer but highly successful bouts (14 matches) will be a crucial storyline.
• No explicit injuries reported for either fighter close to the fight date, suggesting both are near full fitness.
• The bout’s setting at UFC 315 provides a high-profile platform. Aldo’s veteran status and fan following could provide motivational advantage, while Zahabi’s rising profile and youth may add pressure to prove himself at this level.
• Aldo, at 38 years old, is motivated to demonstrate he remains relevant in the bantamweight division. Zahabi, at 37, though close in age, is newer and likely highly motivated to solidify his standing in the UFC ranks by defeating a former champion.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	José Aldo: -192, Aiemann Zahabi: 160	José Aldo win	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	José Aldo -3.5: 125, Aiemann Zahabi +3.5: -175	José Aldo covers -3.5 rounds spread	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -410, Under 2.5 rounds: 290	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	José Aldo -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: José Aldo at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

José Aldo is favored due to his extensive experience, slightly better recent performance metrics, and odds reflecting him as the favorite. However, Zahabi’s youth, finishing potential, and momentum represent a credible threat. Expect a competitive bout with a probable decision or late-round finish favoring Aldo.

Predicted Score: José Aldo wins by unanimous decision or late-round TKO around 3 to 4 rounds