Match Analysis: Malik Basahel vs Ahmed Mostafa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Green Halls, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
The match is a Flyweight division MMA semifinal bout in the PFL MENA 3 tournament between Malik Basahel of Saudi Arabia and Ahmed Mostafa of Egypt. Malik Basahel is undefeated professionally (1-0), while Ahmed Mostafa holds a record of 3-2. The bout is part of the PFL MENA 3 2025 semifinals and streamed live via DAZN.
Key Factors to Consider
- Malik Basahel is currently undefeated and favored heavily by bookmakers, indicating strong recent performance and possibly superior skill or conditioning. Ahmed Mostafa has a mixed record of 3 wins and 2 losses, with a 66.7% win rate by decision and no KO wins, suggesting he may rely more on technical grappling and endurance.
- This appears to be the first professional encounter between Malik Basahel and Ahmed Mostafa, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
- No injury reports or concerns have been indicated for either fighter leading into this match.
- The fight is held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which may provide a slight home advantage or motivation for Malik Basahel as a Saudi fighter. The card is high profile within the region’s MMA scene, adding stakes for both fighters.
- Malik Basahel is looking to maintain his undefeated professional record while advancing to the PFL MENA final, likely increasing his motivation. Ahmed Mostafa aims to rebound from past losses and prove his worth on a significant regional stage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -1350, away: 810 | Malik Basahel to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | home: -1.5, away: +1.5 | Malik Basahel -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | over: 2.5 rounds, under: 2.5 rounds | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Malik Basahel -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Malik Basahel at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Malik Basahel is strongly favored to win the match by decision or late stoppage, given his undefeated status and heavy bookmaker odds advantage. Ahmed Mostafa’s chances of an upset rely on using technique and endurance to counter Basahel’s aggression.
Predicted Score: Malik Basahel wins by decision after 3 rounds