Match Analysis: Pedro Guevara vs Adrian Curiel Dominguez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Gulfstream Park
Game Overview
Pedro Guevara faces Adrian Curiel Dominguez in a closely matched contest with Guevara favored on the moneyline but significant value exists in the total rounds market given both fighters' styles and recent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pedro Guevara has demonstrated consistent recent form with a strong record of wins and technical proficiency, whereas Adrian Curiel Dominguez carries less momentum and is the underdog based on current market odds.
- No prior recorded head-to-head bouts between Guevara and Dominguez, making this a stylistically complex matchup without direct past data to rely on.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter in the lead-up to this match, indicating both competitors are expected to perform at full capacity.
- The fight being held at Gulfstream Park during a high-profile weekend may increase motivation; Guevara's home advantage is negligible as both fighters are competing in a neutral venue.
- Guevara is motivated to maintain his ranking and push for higher-profile fights, while Dominguez aims to upset as an underdog, potentially increasing his risk-taking approach.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -185, away: 155 | Pedro Guevara | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Pedro Guevara -1.5: -110, Adrian Curiel Dominguez +1.5: -110 | Pedro Guevara -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over 8.5 rounds: -400, under 8.5 rounds: 300 | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pedro Guevara -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 180% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 180% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 60% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pedro Guevara to win on moneyline, with the fight going under 8.5 rounds reflecting anticipated tactical bout control
Predicted Score: Pedro Guevara wins by decision or TKO around 7th-8th round