Match Analysis: Patryk Kaczmarczyk vs Adam Soldaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: Netto Arena, Szczecin, Poland

Game Overview

The main event of KSW 112 features the interim featherweight championship bout between Patryk Kaczmarczyk and Adam Soldaev. Kaczmarczyk (12-3) is the #1 ranked featherweight fighter in KSW, known for a balanced mix of KOs, submissions, and decisions. Soldaev (10-2) is ranked #2, coming off a three-fight winning streak with a high finishing rate mostly by early KOs.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kaczmarczyk has fought nine times in KSW since 2021 with six wins, including a recent victory in January 2025. Soldaev holds a strong recent form with three consecutive wins and seven out of ten total wins by stoppage, indicating strong finishing ability.
• No direct head-to-head bouts recorded between Kaczmarczyk and Soldaev prior to this event. Both have shown competitive performances in the featherweight division.
• Kaczmarczyk was forced to withdraw from a July 2025 fight against Leo Brichta due to injury, but has since recovered to face Soldaev. No reported injuries for Soldaev.
• The fight acts as a decider for the interim featherweight championship belt with high stakes increasing both fighters' motivation. The event is held in Poland, which may slightly favor Kaczmarczyk as the local fighter.
• Kaczmarczyk aims to reclaim interim featherweight glory after a prior loss in 2024 championship fight, motivated by home crowd advantage and legacy. Soldaev, riding a winning streak, looks to cement his status as a top contender with aggressive finishes.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Adam Soldaev: -170, Patryk Kaczmarczyk: 130	Adam Soldaev to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Soldaev -1.5 rounds: -110, Kaczmarczyk +1.5 rounds: -110	Soldaev -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 3.5 rounds: -120, Under 3.5 rounds: 100	Under 3.5 rounds (Fight likely to end early)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Adam Soldaev -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Adam Soldaev at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The fight is expected to be highly competitive, with Soldaev's finishing power and momentum giving him a slight edge, whereas Kaczmarczyk's experience and well-rounded skill set could enable a decision win if he neutralizes Soldaev's aggression.

Predicted Score: Adam Soldaev wins by TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Leo Brichta vs Adam Soldaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Hala Urania, Olsztyn, Poland

Game Overview

The main event of KSW 108 features a highly anticipated UFC Featherweight bout between Leo Brichta and Adam Soldaev. Scheduled for three rounds, this fight will take place at Hala Urania in Olsztyn, Poland. Brichta, representing Czech Republic, faces Soldaev from Poland in a critical featherweight clash that carries significant championship implications.

Key Factors to Consider

• Leo Brichta holds a strong recent record with his high ranking at #83 Featherweight and is coming off consistent wins, showing solid form. Adam Soldaev, ranked #190 Featherweight, stepped in as a replacement after an original opponent’s withdrawal, indicating potential ring rust but also fresh motivation. Both fighters have demonstrated resilience, though Brichta’s higher ranking and steadier recent form suggest a performance edge.
• There are no recorded previous fights between Leo Brichta and Adam Soldaev, making this their first meeting. This lack of direct matchup data leaves stylistic analysis and recent form as primary predictive tools.
• No significant injury reports have been found for either fighter leading into the bout. Notably, Adam Soldaev replaced Patryk Kaczmarczyk, who withdrew, but Soldaev appears fully prepared.
• The fight location in Poland could provide Soldaev with a hometown advantage in terms of crowd support and comfort with the venue. However, Brichta's experience in international settings and previous success may offset location bias.
• Adam Soldaev, stepping in on short notice, seems highly motivated to prove himself in the main event spotlight. Brichta aims to maintain his momentum and ranking with a win over a local contender, which adds pressure but also focus.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	adam_soldaev: -125, leo_brichta: -105	Leo Brichta to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	leo_brichta: -1.5, adam_soldaev: +1.5	Leo Brichta -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Adam Soldaev -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Adam Soldaev at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Leo Brichta is favored to win given his higher ranking, consistent recent form, and experience at this level. Soldaev’s late replacement status and lower ranking reduce his chances despite home advantage. Expect a competitive fight, but Brichta is more likely to control the pace and secure a decision or late finish.

Predicted Score: Leo Brichta wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds