Match Analysis: Tariq Pell vs Adam Shelley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-12
• Time: 7:30 PM UTC
• Location: Cage Warriors 192, London

Game Overview

Tariq Pell faces Adam Shelley in a 160lbs catchweight bout at Cage Warriors 192. Pell is the betting favorite with odds reflecting his perceived edge, while Shelley is a short-notice replacement with less time to prepare.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tariq Pell has demonstrated consistent recent form with a higher winning probability (58.4%) compared to Shelley (41.6%). Shelley is stepping in on short notice, which may impact his readiness.
• No recorded direct head-to-head matches between Pell and Shelley, making form and situational factors more critical.
• No reported significant injuries for either fighter, but Shelley’s short-notice acceptance could mean less recovery and preparation time.
• The fight is at Cage Warriors 192 in London, which may offer local crowd support for Pell. Shelley’s late call-up might affect his psychological and physical preparation.
• Both fighters have high stakes, but Pell benefits from being the original booking and likely better prepared, whereas Shelley’s motivation is high but tempered by short notice.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Pell -180, Shelley +140	Tariq Pell	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	No official published spread odds; implied spread about -1.5 rounds for Pell	Tariq Pell to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over/Under 2.5 rounds	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tariq Pell -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Tariq Pell at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tariq Pell to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Tariq Pell wins by 2nd round TKO

Match Analysis: Adam Shelley vs Simone Patrizi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Adam Shelley and Simone Patrizi face off in an MMA match as part of Cage Warriors. Both fighters are closely matched, with Shelley slightly favored in some aspects but Patrizi having a strong reputation as well.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have shown strong skills in their respective careers. Shelley's recent performances indicate a solid ground game, while Patrizi is known for his aggressive striking.
• There is no available head-to-head data between these fighters, making it a first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of a significant event, which might add pressure but also provides a high level of motivation for both fighters.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, seeking a win to advance their careers in Cage Warriors.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-110 for Adam Shelley, -120 for Simone Patrizi	Adam Shelley	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Adam Shelley is slightly favored due to his recent form, but Simone Patrizi's aggressive style could pose a significant challenge.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Adam Shelley