Match Analysis: Adam Darby vs Tato Primera – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-27
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England

Game Overview

Adam Darby (4-1-0), younger and with a strong recent form, faces Tato Primera (20-15-0), a more experienced but inconsistent fighter. Darby is listed as a heavy favorite, reflecting both his recent trajectory and Primera's struggle to maintain consistency in results.

Key Factors to Consider

• Adam Darby: 4 wins (1 KO/TKO, 2 Subs, 1 Decision), 1 loss; Tato Primera: 20 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 Subs, 6 Decisions), 15 losses. Darby shows a higher finish rate for his age and experience level, while Primera has experience but a questionable finish rate and more frequent losses.
• No previous bouts between Darby and Primera. Darby's activity and finish rate (75% finishes) contrast with Primera's (40% finishes from wins), but Primera has faced stiffer competition.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading into the event[3][5].
• Invite-only event at BEC Arena, Manchester. No significant crowd or location bias noted. Both fighters healthy and available[3][5].
• Darby is on a positive trajectory and will be highly motivated to continue his momentum. Primera, as the massive underdog, may be fighting for opportunities or relevance within the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Adam Darby: -1400, Tato Primera: 800	Adam Darby	Very High (90%)
Over/under	Over 1.5: -105, Under 1.5: -125	Under 1.5	Moderate (65%)

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Adam Darby -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Adam Darby is heavily favored and expected to win, likely by finish. His recent momentum, physical advantages (youth, finish rate), and the betting line suggest he will impose his game early, potentially securing a finish before the second round.

Predicted Score: Adam Darby wins by KO/TKO or Submission (within 1.5 rounds)

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – June 27, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Jordan Molinari vs. Yannis Osmani Prediction	Under 1.5	170	62%
Valentin Moldavsky vs. Alexander Romanov Prediction	Valentin Moldavsky	-175	54%
Adam Darby vs. Tato Primera Prediction	Under 1.5	-125	17%

Combined Odds: +664 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $152.74

Match Analysis: Adam Darby vs Tomasz Łangowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 3:30 PM UTC
• Location: Cage Warriors Event Venue (exact location not specified)

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout between Adam Darby (Ireland) and Tomasz Łangowski (Poland) is a Welterweight prelim fight as part of the Cage Warriors 188 event. Both fighters have similar physical profiles, with Darby standing at 190 cm and Łangowski at 185 cm tall, showcasing comparable reach dynamics. The fight has attracted attention due to the fighters' recent form and balanced skill sets. Detailed fight statistics such as strikes per zone, grappling, and takedown data are available but not fully disclosed here.

Key Factors to Consider

• Adam Darby has demonstrated consistent performance in his recent fights, maintaining a solid defensive stance combined with effective striking. Tomasz Łangowski also presents strong striking and grappling capabilities. Neither fighter holds a clear advantage but Darby’s slight height and reach edge may influence stand-up exchanges.
• No prior head-to-head fights recorded between Adam Darby and Tomasz Łangowski, making this their first competitive bout against each other.
• No publicly available reports indicate injuries for either fighter ahead of the match, suggesting both are entering the fight in good physical condition.
• The fight is taking place under Cage Warriors rules, which typically emphasize striking and grappling balance. Both athletes fight on neutral ground with no home advantage. No travel or environmental issues have been reported.
• Both fighters aim to solidify their position within the Welterweight division in Cage Warriors. Darby may have slightly higher motivation given his recent momentum and desire to break into higher rankings, while Łangowski seeks to capitalize on this opportunity for international recognition.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Adam Darby: -145, Tomasz Łangowski: +125, Draw: +2500	Adam Darby to win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Adam Darby -1.5 rounds: -110, Tomasz Łangowski +1.5 rounds: -110	Adam Darby to win within 2 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100	Fight to go over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Adam Darby is favored to win due to his slight physical advantages, consistent recent performances, and potential reach superiority. The fight is expected to be competitive and possibly decided by striking effectiveness or ground control.

Predicted Score: Adam Darby wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3 or 4