Match Analysis: Abraham Bably vs Rodrigo Nascimento – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 1, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Orlando, Florida, United States
Game Overview
Heavyweight matchup in the PFL 2025 World Tournament. Nascimento (11-3-0) enters with a significant experience edge over relative newcomer Bably (5-1-0), though current odds favor Nascimento (-135). The Brazilian's superior reach (6'2" vs 5'10") and proven finishing ability (5 KOs, 2 subs) contrast with Bably's less documented style.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nascimento shows consistent performance across decisions (3) and finishes (7). Bably's limited record lacks signature wins against ranked opponents.
- No prior meeting. Nascimento's experience against UFC-caliber opposition contrasts with Bably's regional-level resume.
- No reported injuries pre-fight.
- Nascimento's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base could dominate if fight goes to ground. Bably's compact frame may aid defensive grappling but limits strike defense.
- Both fighters need win to advance in PFL's tournament format with $1 million prize.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bably -105, Nascimento -135 | Nascimento | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds (-150) / Under 1.5 rounds (+120) | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rodrigo Nascimento 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nascimento by decision or late TKO. His 264lb frame and cardio edge should wear down Bably in later rounds.
Predicted Score: Nascimento via TKO (Round 3)