Match Analysis: Abraham Bably vs Joffie Houlton – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa 3, Rwanda

Game Overview

Heavyweight semifinal bout between Abraham Bably and Joffie Houlton at PFL Africa 3. Bably is favored heavily by bookmakers and holds a strong track record with more wins via KO. Houlton missed weight, coming in heavier, which may affect his conditioning and performance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Abraham Bably is on a strong run with a 6-2 career record and recent win over Paul-Emmanuel Gnaze. Bably has a 50% KO rate among his wins, indicating effective striking. Joffie Houlton, while less detailed statistically, missed weight at 263.8 lbs, potentially hindering performance.
• This is their first recorded matchup, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
• No reported injuries on either fighter; however, Houlton’s weight miss indicates possible issues in preparation or conditioning.
• The event is held in Rwanda under the PFL Africa series, standard neutral conditions. Houlton missing weight could psychologically impact his confidence and stamina in the fight.
• Both fighters are highly motivated as this bout determines a finalist in the heavyweight tournament, but Bably's more consistent preparation (making weight) gives him an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abraham Bably: -1800, Joffie Houlton: +900	Abraham Bably	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Bably -1.5 rounds: -150, Houlton +1.5 rounds: +120	Bably -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +174, Under 1.5 rounds: -200	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abraham Bably -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abraham Bably win by stoppage (KO/TKO) within 2 rounds

Predicted Score: Bably wins via KO/TKO round 2

Match Analysis: Abraham Bably vs Paul-Emmanuel Gnaze – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Cape Town, South Africa

Game Overview

A heavyweight bout on the main card of PFL Africa 1, featuring Nigerian prospect Abraham Bably against Cameroonian Paul-Emmanuel Gnaze. Bably is a significant favorite, entering with a broad consensus among sportsbooks. Gnaze is the major underdog, with no recent elite-level wins.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bably is a highly touted prospect with dominant performances in regional circuits and strong connections in major MMA gyms. Gnaze has limited tape, no marquee wins, and lower experience in international-level competition.
• No prior meeting between fighters.
• No recent injury reports for either fighter as of fight week.
• Event is being promoted as a major platform for emerging African talent, which may raise Bably's profile but could add pressure. Gnaze may be motivated to upset expectations, but he lacks the international network of training camps.
• Bably has the opportunity to burst onto the global scene; Gnaze is fighting for a career-defining upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abraham Bably: -1200, Paul-Emmanuel Gnaze: 750	Abraham Bably wins	★★★★★ 94%
Spread	Bably -3.5 rounds (hypothetical; see note). No official spread offered for MMA on most books.	Bably covers the spread if available (e.g., inside 3.5 rounds)	★★★★☆ 89%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abraham Bably -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Abraham Bably at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bably by early-to-mid round stoppage, either TKO or submission, given his advanced skill set and athleticism compared to Gnaze's unproven record at this level.

Predicted Score: Abraham Bably wins via TKO, Round 2

Match Analysis: Abraham Bably vs Rodrigo Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Orlando, Florida, United States

Game Overview

Heavyweight matchup in the PFL 2025 World Tournament. Nascimento (11-3-0) enters with a significant experience edge over relative newcomer Bably (5-1-0), though current odds favor Nascimento (-135). The Brazilian's superior reach (6'2" vs 5'10") and proven finishing ability (5 KOs, 2 subs) contrast with Bably's less documented style.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nascimento shows consistent performance across decisions (3) and finishes (7). Bably's limited record lacks signature wins against ranked opponents.
• No prior meeting. Nascimento's experience against UFC-caliber opposition contrasts with Bably's regional-level resume.
• No reported injuries pre-fight.
• Nascimento's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base could dominate if fight goes to ground. Bably's compact frame may aid defensive grappling but limits strike defense.
• Both fighters need win to advance in PFL's tournament format with $1 million prize.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bably -105, Nascimento -135	Nascimento	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds (-150) / Under 1.5 rounds (+120)	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rodrigo Nascimento 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nascimento by decision or late TKO. His 264lb frame and cardio edge should wear down Bably in later rounds.

Predicted Score: Nascimento via TKO (Round 3)