Match Analysis: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 5:30 PM UTC
• Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar

Game Overview

This light heavyweight MMA bout features undefeated debutant Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (7-0) facing experienced but winless-in-UFC Raffael Cerqueira (11-3, 0-3 UFC). The fight is part of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker, marking UFC's first event in Qatar. Yakhyaev is favored by bookmakers due to his undefeated record, discipline, cardio, and grappling superiority, while Cerqueira looks to redeem his UFC struggles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Yakhyaev enters with a perfect 7-0 record, demonstrating finishing ability with early round KOs, submissions, and strong grappling. Cerqueira has more professional fights (11-3) but has struggled in UFC bouts (0-3), indicating difficulty adapting at elite level. Yakhyaev’s versatility strikes and grappling are seen as superior.
• No prior matchups between Yakhyaev and Cerqueira exist, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries or fitness issues for either fighter prior to the bout.
• The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, which is UFC’s debut event location, possibly favoring Yakhyaev’s conditioning and mental preparedness as he fights under expected peak shape and discipline.
• Yakhyaev is motivated to secure a strong UFC debut and maintain undefeated status, boosting his career trajectory. Cerqueira is driven to overcome his UFC losing streak and prove he belongs at this level.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -1350, away: 800	Yakhyaev win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	home: -7.5 -800, away: 7.5 450	Yakhyaev to win by more than 7.5 points (dominant finish)	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	over: 1.5 230, under: 1.5 -315	Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev 737%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev at 737% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 92.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is predicted to win by early TKO or ground-and-pound dominance, likely in the first round, leveraging his superior cardio, discipline, and grappling to control and finish Cerqueira.

Predicted Score: Yakhyaev wins via TKO/KO Round 1

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – November 22, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs. Raffael Cerqueira Prediction	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev	-1350	737%
Nurullo Aliev vs. Shaqueme Rock Prediction	Shaqueme Rock	235	152%
Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Garry Prediction	Over 2.5	-315	151%

Combined Odds: +374 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $94.81

Match Analysis: Alik Lorenz vs Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Location TBD

Game Overview

Light heavyweight matchup between Alik Lorenz (6-1) and Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (6-0) scheduled for Dana White's Contender Series. Lorenz is a fast starter with heavy power and a 100% finish rate but has a shaky chin and weak takedown defense. Yakhyaev is the current Ares FC champion with a multifaceted finish record including decisions, KOs, and submissions, known for his strong wrestling and ground game.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lorenz is 4-0 under the Cage Warriors banner and has a fast, aggressive style relying on power and physicality to break opponents down, while Yakhyaev holds a perfect 6-0 record, with a balanced skill set and recent experience in title fights showing both striking power and elite wrestling.
• No prior meetings between Lorenz and Yakhyaev; both have combined nine first-round finishes but Lorenz has never gone to decision, whereas Yakhyaev has wins by all methods including decisions.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter prior to the match.
• Fight takes place on Dana White’s Contender Series, likely increasing pressure on both as they seek UFC contracts; Yakhyaev represents MMA Nurnberg camp, which is less known but producing a top prospect.
• High motivation on both sides with Yakhyaev aiming to continue his winning streak and secure UFC contract after recent title bouts, and Lorenz on a quest to rebound from an early career loss and maintain his 100% finish rate.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev: -900, Alik Lorenz: 600	Pick Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Yakhyaev -1.5: -120, Lorenz +1.5: +100	Yakhyaev to cover -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 190, Under 1.5: -240	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is favored to win due to superior technical skills, versatility, and wrestling dominance. Lorenz’s power and fast start may make the fight competitive but Yakhyaev's grappling and ability to finish by multiple methods gives him an edge.

Predicted Score: Yakhyaev wins by submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round 2