Match Analysis: Shuai Yin vs Aaron Tau – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 9:00 AM UTC
- Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium
Game Overview
Shuai Yin and Aaron Tau face off in a bantamweight MMA bout scheduled for 3 rounds at Road to UFC: Shanghai. Shuai Yin, a 27-year-old Chinese fighter, holds an 18-5 record featuring a balanced mix of knockouts and submissions. Aaron Tau, a 32-year-old New Zealander, has a 10-1 record with a strong knockout rate. Both fighters are motivated by the opportunity to progress towards a UFC contract, fighting in a highly competitive event featuring top Asian prospects.
Key Factors to Consider
- Shuai Yin has 18 wins (4 by KO/TKO, 8 by submission, 5 by decision) and 5 losses, showing versatility in striking and grappling. Aaron Tau holds 10 wins (7 by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 2 by decision) and only 1 loss, indicating strong finishing ability predominantly via strikes.
- No prior recorded matches between Shuai Yin and Aaron Tau, making this their first encounter; this adds unpredictability to the fight outcome.
- No reported injuries or physical setbacks for either fighter leading up to the match.
- Fight location in Shanghai Indoor Stadium gives slight home advantage to Shuai Yin, who is Chinese; event conditions and crowd support might influence performance. Both fighters have similar weight and reach classes, minimizing physical disparities.
- Both athletes are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract, with contrasting styles where Yin’s submission skills meet Tau's striking power, creating a high-stakes and stylistically intriguing bout.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aaron Tau: -165, Shuai Yin: 135 | Aaron Tau | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Aaron Tau: -1.5, Shuai Yin: +1.5 | Aaron Tau -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | over: 1.90, under: 1.90 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aaron Tau -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Aaron Tau at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aaron Tau is favored to win due to his superior finishing rate and current moneyline odds. However, Shuai Yin’s more diverse MMA record including submissions could present significant challenges. Tau’s slight height and reach disadvantage is minimal but noted. The prediction favors a Tau win by KO/TKO or decision with about 60% confidence.
Predicted Score: Aaron Tau wins by KO/TKO in round 2