Match Analysis: Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 3:45 AM UTC
- Location: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Game Overview
Lerone Murphy faces UFC debutant Aaron Pico in a featherweight co-main event at UFC 319. Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with a strong striking and grappling profile, whereas Pico has high finishing ability but with prior career losses and no UFC experience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Murphy is 8-0-1 in the UFC with high striking volume and accuracy, good takedown stats and defensive skills. Pico holds a 13-4 record but has not fought in UFC before and has shown vulnerability to being finished.
- This will be their first meeting with no prior head-to-head results available.
- No significant injury reports for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- Murphy's UFC experience and home advantage of fighting in Chicago (close to his training base) contrast with Pico’s UFC debut, potentially adding pressure.
- Murphy aims to maintain his perfect UFC record and showcase consistency, while Pico is highly motivated to make a successful UFC debut, adding an element of unpredictability.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aaron Pico -170, Lerone Murphy +142 | Lerone Murphy | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Aaron Pico -3.5 120, Lerone Murphy +3.5 -165 | Lerone Murphy +3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -215, Under 2.5 165 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aaron Pico 33% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 72% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lerone Murphy to win via decision
Predicted Score: Murphy wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds