Match Analysis: Willem II vs Heracles Almelo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-09
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg, Netherlands
Game Overview
Willem II Tilburg, placed 16th with 25 points, hosts Heracles Almelo, ranked 12th with 35 points, in a crucial Eredivisie clash. Both teams are struggling for form, with Willem II on a run of 5 straight home defeats and Heracles facing road woes, losing 3 of their last 6 away games. Recent history and statistical trends suggest an open, high-scoring encounter.
Key Factors to Consider
- Willem II has lost 5 of their last 6 home matches, managing just 3 wins in 23 recent Eredivisie games. Heracles is struggling on the road, losing 3 of their last 6 away. Both teams have issues defensively.
- Willem II has lost 18 out of 33 head-to-head matches against Heracles, indicating a historical disadvantage for the home side.
- No notable injury news available in current data.
- No significant external factors reported. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be standard.
- Both teams are mid to lower table, with Heracles slightly safer from relegation. Willem II, deep in the relegation zone, will be desperate for points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Heracles Almelo: 170, Willem II: 150, Draw: 230 | Willem II slight favorite on odds, but value in Heracles based on form and H2H. | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | Heracles Almelo: 0 -102, Willem II: 0 -118 | Push or Willem II to cover on spread, given home desperation. | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over: 2.5 -120, Under: 2.5 100 | Over 2.5 goals likely due to both teams' defensive issues and attacking intent. | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Willem II -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Heracles Almelo holds a slight edge due to better league position and historical dominance, but Willem II's desperation at home could make this a close match. Expect goals, with both teams likely to score.
Predicted Score: 2-2