Match Analysis: West Bromwich Albion vs Derby County – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich, England
Game Overview
West Bromwich Albion hosts Derby County in the EFL Championship with West Brom as solid favorites due to their strong early season form, home advantage, and Derby’s struggles near the relegation zone.
Key Factors to Consider
- West Bromwich Albion have started the season strongly with three wins and a draw placing them 2nd in the league, showing defensive solidity and efficient attack. Derby County, in contrast, have two draws and three losses, struggling especially on defense with a leaky backline, and sit close to the relegation zone.
- Derby County have had a recent advantage in head-to-head, winning the last three meetings including a League Cup penalty shootout win. However, last league encounter resulted in a 2-1 victory for West Brom, indicating a competitive rivalry.
- No significant injury reports for West Bromwich Albion or Derby County reported in the available data, suggesting both teams likely field close to full strength.
- Match played at West Bromwich's home ground, The Hawthorns, giving them a home advantage. Recent form and morale favor West Bromwich with Derby under pressure to improve results. Weather and pitch conditions are standard and should not notably impact the game.
- West Bromwich aim to push up the table early in the season with a strong home performance, while Derby County are motivated to escape early relegation worries and turn around their poor start, adding urgency to the visitors but possibly making them vulnerable defensively.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | West Bromwich Albion: -136, Draw: +230, Derby County: +385 | West Bromwich Albion | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | West Bromwich Albion -0.75: +105, Derby County +75: -125 | West Bromwich Albion -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: +110, Under 2.25: -130 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | West Bromwich Albion 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: West Bromwich Albion at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
West Bromwich Albion to win
Predicted Score: 2-1