Match Analysis: Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-24
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Weserstadion
Game Overview
Mid-table Bundesliga clash featuring defensively suspect teams. Werder Bremen's home advantage, combined with Union Berlin's inconsistent form and poor away record against top sides, makes Bremen favorites. Both teams have poor defensive stats, increasing expectations of goals.
Key Factors to Consider
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in two, including a recent home win, but have conceded 16 goals in 7 games, ranking second-worst defensively. Union Berlin are inconsistent, with three losses in six, conceding 14 goals, and have struggled away to stronger teams[1]. Bremen's goalscoring threat is distributed among multiple players, potentially making them harder to contain[1].
- No detailed H2H stats provided in search. Union Berlin's recent away wins are against mid-to-lower table opposition; they lost on the road to Dortmund and Leverkusen[1].
- No injury reports found in the available data. Injury news could swing momentum if known closer to kickoff.
- No major external factors reported, but Bremen's home support and momentum from their unbeaten run could provide an edge[1].
- Werder Bremen sit just above the relegation zone and two points behind Union Berlin at kickoff, adding urgency to their campaign. Union Berlin, comfortably mid-table, may lack the same desperation[1]. Bremen's solid home record and goal-scoring threats add to their incentive[1].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Werder Bremen 114, Union Berlin 220, Draw 260 | Werder Bremen | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Werder Bremen -0.25 -115, Union Berlin 25 -105 | Werder Bremen -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75 -102, Under 2.75 -118 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Werder Bremen -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Werder Bremen are high-probability favorites, with both sides expected to concede due to poor defensive records. Over 2.75 goals is the sharpest value play in current markets.
Predicted Score: 3-2 Werder Bremen