Match Analysis: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Weserstadion, Bremen
Game Overview
Werder Bremen hosts RB Leipzig in a Bundesliga clash with both teams vying for positioning near the European places. RB Leipzig is in strong contention for a UEFA Conference League spot, while Werder Bremen sits mid-table. Recent form shows RB Leipzig with a clear advantage in head-to-head meetings and more consistent goal-scoring ability.
Key Factors to Consider
- RB Leipzig averages 1.59 goals scored and 1.41 goals allowed per match, slightly outperforming Werder Bremen (1.56 scored, 1.75 allowed). Leipzig has recorded more clean sheets and a slightly better defensive record overall. Both teams have had mixed recent form, with each having streaks of wins and losses in recent weeks.
- RB Leipzig dominates recent head-to-heads, winning 12 out of 19 meetings (63%), with only 3 wins for Werder Bremen (16%) and 4 draws. The average goals per match in these encounters is around 3.0, with Leipzig averaging 1.9 goals per game compared to Werder's 1.1. Leipzig has also won 9 of the last 11 Bundesliga meetings.
- No major injury news is currently available from the latest data. Team line-ups and substitutions can influence in-play dynamics.
- No significant external factors (weather, crowd, etc.) reported. Home advantage for Werder Bremen may be offset by Leipzig’s strong head-to-head record.
- RB Leipzig is more motivated for European qualification, while Werder Bremen has less at stake, likely playing for pride and mid-table security.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Werder Bremen: 135, Draw: 275, RB Leipzig: 180 | RB Leipzig (win) | High (75%) |
Spread | Werder Bremen -0.25: 105, RB Leipzig 25: -125 | RB Leipzig +0.25 | High (70%) |
Over/under | Over 3: -118, Under 3: -102 | Over 3 | High (68%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | RB Leipzig 26% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: RB Leipzig at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
RB Leipzig is favored to win, supported by superior head-to-head stats and a stronger team performance profile. Expect a high-scoring game with Leipzig likely to secure at least a draw, but a win is probable given current form and motivation.
Predicted Score: 2-3 (RB Leipzig win)