Match Analysis: Vitoria vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, BRA
Game Overview
The Brasileiro Serie A match between Vitória and Santos promises a competitive encounter as Vitória hosts Santos at Estádio Manoel Barradas. Vitória currently sits in 16th place with 9 points and has demonstrated some home strength with 2 wins in 4 home matches. Santos, struggling badly with only 5 points in 19th place, are winless in 7 of their last 8 matches and have lost 67% of their last 6 games. Historically, Vitória has had difficulty against Santos, losing 13 of their last 23 encounters and suffering consecutive head-to-head defeats at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vitória shows moderate home form but overall a weak campaign with only 2 wins in last 11 Serie A games. Santos is in poor form with very few wins recently and a severe struggle to secure positive results, reflecting low confidence and poor attacking output.
- Santos have dominated recent meetings, with Vitória losing their last 4 home games against Santos and 3 consecutive home HT/FT results going in Santos' favor.
- No detailed injury reports available from the current data; assume key players likely to be available given no substitutions or absences reported.
- Neymar's recent criticism for missing games due to Carnival celebrations might affect Santos team morale and public perception. No major external disruptions reported for Vitória.
- Both teams are motivated to improve their league standing, with Vitória aiming to consolidate safety and Santos desperate to exit the relegation zone.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Santos: 240, Vitoria: 120, Draw: 225 | Vitoria win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Santos: 25 -110, Vitoria: -0.25 -110 | Vitoria -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 2 -115, Under: 2 -105 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Vitoria -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the historical dominance of Santos over Vitória, despite Santos' poor current form, and Vitória's moderate home advantage, the match is likely to be closely contested. A narrow Vitória win is predicted, capitalizing on home conditions and Santos' inconsistent recent displays.
Predicted Score: 2-0