Match Analysis: Vitoria vs Botafogo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Manoel Barradas (Vitoria home ground)
Game Overview
A tightly contested Brasileirão Serie A clash between struggling Vitoria and mid-table Botafogo, with both sides showing moderate recent form but differing incentives as the season nears end.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vitoria has a weak recent form (2 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses) and sits near the relegation zone, showing a mild home advantage but low scoring (avg 1.0 goals/game). Botafogo performs better on the road (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses) with a stronger defense and slightly more consistent goal scoring (1.1 avg goals/game).
- Historically, Botafogo leads the H2H (5 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses in last 9 encounters), indicating some dominance over Vitoria.
- No critical injury updates available suggesting major absences for either side impacting the lineup significantly.
- No adverse weather or venue restrictions reported; match at Vitoria’s ground with probable mild home advantage.
- Vitoria likely more motivated to avoid relegation with fewer points, while Botafogo aims to consolidate mid-table position and potentially push for upper finishes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: 135, Vitoria: 210, Draw: 215 | Botafogo | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Botafogo: 102 on -0.25, Vitoria: -122 on +25 | Botafogo -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo 27% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Botafogo at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Botafogo moneyline for positive expected value given odds and probability.
Predicted Score: 0-1
