Match Analysis: Vitória SC vs Arouca – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes, Portugal
Game Overview
Vitória SC and Arouca are closely matched around mid-table in Portugal's Primeira Liga, with Vitória SC currently 9th and Arouca 8th. Both teams show similar recent form with moderate scoring but defensive vulnerabilities, making this a competitive fixture at Vitória's home ground.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vitória SC recently scored 11 goals in 5 matches but haven't kept a clean sheet in 5 games, conceding 2.33 goals on average. Arouca scored 2 goals per game but concede more heavily at 3.33 goals on average. Vitória SC has slightly better recent results and home advantage.
- Historically, Vitória SC leads with 10 wins to Arouca's 4 in 20 encounters; recent matches suggest a balanced dynamic with a 2-2 draw in their last league meeting earlier in 2025. Vitória SC has a slightly higher win ratio head-to-head.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting key players, implying both squads near full strength.
- Match takes place at Vitória SC's home stadium, Dom Afonso Henriques, presenting a home advantage. No major external disruptions known.
- Both teams sit in mid-table and will seek points to improve standings early in the season. Vitória SC, playing at home and with a slightly better form, have marginally stronger motivation to capitalize.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Vitória SC: -125, Draw: +255, Arouca: +345 | Vitória SC | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Vitória SC -0.5: -122, Arouca +50: +102 | Vitória SC -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: +102, Under 2.5: -122 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Vitória SC -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vitória SC to win
Predicted Score: 2-1