Match Analysis: Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de la Ceramica
Game Overview
Villarreal, sitting 3rd in La Liga with 20 points from 10 games, looks to consolidate their position against Rayo Vallecano (7th, 14 points). Both teams are in reasonable form, but Villarreal has the stronger recent results, including wins over Sevilla and resilience against top sides. Rayo Vallecano are on a six-game unbeaten run across all competitions but have struggled historically at the Ceramica.
Key Factors to Consider
- Villarreal have won three of their last five, scoring consistently. Rayo Vallecano have beaten lower-table teams recently but lost to Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, highlighting vulnerability against top-half sides.
- In the last 11 head-to-head meetings at Villarreal, Rayo Vallecano have just one win. Villarreal averages 1.73 goals per home H2H, Rayo 1.27. Last season: 1-1 at Ceramica, 0-1 at Rayo. Rayo has only one away win vs Villarreal in the 21st century.
- No major injuries reported from either side in available data.
- Villarreal at home is a strong factor; Rayo is juggling European commitments.
- Villarreal are chasing the top two, needing to capitalize on home games against mid-table sides. Rayo's recent unbeaten streak boosts confidence, but their away form against Villarreal is poor.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Villarreal -145, Draw +285, Rayo Vallecano +395 | Villarreal | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
| Spread | Villarreal -0.75 -115, Rayo Vallecano +75 -105 | Villarreal -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75 -108, Under 2.75 -112 | Over 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Villarreal -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Villarreal to win a close, high-scoring game, exploiting home advantage and Rayo's historical struggles at the Ceramica.
Predicted Score: Villarreal 2-1 Rayo Vallecano