Match Analysis: VfL Wolfsburg vs TSG Hoffenheim – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-09
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany
Game Overview
In a Bundesliga clash, 12th-placed Wolfsburg (39 points) hosts 15th-placed Hoffenheim (31 points). Both teams have struggled in recent matches. Historically, both teams have scored in all of Wolfsburg's last nine home Bundesliga matches against Hoffenheim, and Wolfsburg has suffered only one loss in their last 13 home clashes against Hoffenheim in all competitions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Wolfsburg: inconsistent at home with 3 losses in last 6 home games; Hoffenheim: 3 defeats in last 6 matches overall.
- Wolfsburg has 3 wins in last 6 league meetings. Both teams have scored in all of Wolfsburg's last 9 home Bundesliga matches vs Hoffenheim; Wolfsburg unbeaten in 12 of last 13 home matches vs Hoffenheim in all competitions.
- No significant injury updates available for either side from current sources.
- No major external factors reported. Weather, venue, and referee expected to be standard.
- Both teams are motivated to secure vital points to avoid relegation and finish mid-table. Wolfsburg at home will be particularly keen to avoid another loss.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | TSG Hoffenheim: 200, VfL Wolfsburg: 125, Draw: 275 | VfL Wolfsburg | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | TSG Hoffenheim: 25 -115, VfL Wolfsburg: -0.25 -105 | VfL Wolfsburg -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 3 -112, Under: 3 -108 | Over 3 | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | VfL Wolfsburg 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wolfsburg slight favorites at home with strong head-to-head record. Expect a competitive match with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. Margin likely to be tight, possibly decided by a single goal.
Predicted Score: 2-1 (VfL Wolfsburg win)