Match Analysis: Venezia vs Juventus – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice, Italy
Game Overview
The Serie A match between Venezia and Juventus will take place at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice on May 25, 2025. Juventus, currently 4th in the league, face a struggling Venezia side ranked 19th. Historically, Juventus have dominated recent meetings, winning most encounters, especially at Venezia's home ground, where Venezia's last win against Juventus dates back to 1962. Juventus enter this fixture with a strong record against Venezia, having lost only two of their 27 Serie A matches head-to-head, both occurring decades ago. Venezia have conceded many goals at home to Juventus, indicating a defensive vulnerability against this opponent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Juventus are significantly stronger this season, holding 4th place and displaying consistent form. Venezia, ranked 19th, have struggled defensively and overall, likely facing relegation pressure. Juventus have a potent attack and better squad depth compared to Venezia’s limited resources and form.
- Juventus have a dominant record over Venezia with 17 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses in 27 Serie A matches, with both Venezia wins dating back to mid-20th century. Venezia have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per home match against Juventus and have found it difficult to stop Juventus scoring in recent decades.
- No explicit injury updates are available for this match from the sources, suggesting that both squads are relatively stable going into the final fixture of the season.
- Playing at home may provide Venezia some advantage psychologically, but Juventus’ superior quality and experience likely outweigh any such benefit. Weather and pitch conditions at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo are expected to be typical for late May in Venice with no adverse external impacts noted.
- Juventus, aiming for a Champions League qualification spot, have strong motivation to secure full points. Venezia, fighting relegation, will be motivated to earn any points possible to improve survival chances, but their form and squad limitations reduce likely impact.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Juventus: -180, Venezia: 460, Draw: 330 | Juventus win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | Juventus: -1 -108, Venezia: 1 -112 | Juventus -1 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -118, Under 2.5: -102 | Over 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Juventus 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Juventus are clear favorites to win this fixture based on form, historical dominance, and squad strength. A Juventus win is the most probable outcome, with a moderate expectation of goals scored given Juventus' attacking capabilities and Venezia's defensive struggles.
Predicted Score: Juventus 3 – 1 Venezia