Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: São Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
The match is a Brazilian Campeonato Série A clash between Vasco da Gama and São Paulo, held at Vasco's home ground, São Januário. Vasco is in strong form, having won their last four league matches and is currently eighth in the league, pushing for a Libertadores spot. São Paulo comes as the visiting team with a recent history of losses against Vasco. The stakes are high for both teams aiming to improve their league standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vasco da Gama is on a four-match winning streak in the Brasileiro, showing solid offensive and defensive stats, with top scorers Rayan (11 goals) and Pablo Vegetti (14 goals) leading the charge. São Paulo has struggled against Vasco recently, losing 3-1 in their last encounter and with comparatively weaker momentum.
- Recent head-to-head matches favor Vasco da Gama, with a notable 3-1 home victory over São Paulo in June 2025. Vasco tend to perform well at home, backed by strong fan support.
- No specific injury information is available from the current data, indicating no critical absences reported for either side at the moment.
- Tickets for the match at São Januário have sold out, indicating a full-capacity crowd supporting Vasco, enhancing home advantage. The match is played at Vasco's home venue, further boosting their confidence and morale.
- Vasco da Gama is motivated by their surge in form and the pursuit of a Libertadores qualification spot, while São Paulo aims to reverse recent poor results and improve league placement.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sao Paulo: 255, Vasco da Gama: 118, Draw: 212 | Vasco da Gama win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Sao Paulo: 25 -105, Vasco da Gama: -0.25 -115 | Vasco da Gama -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -130, Under 2: 110 | Over 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vasco da Gama 48% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Vasco da Gama at 48% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Vasco da Gama’s strong recent performance, home advantage, and favorable head-to-head record, they are predicted to win this match.
Predicted Score: 2-1