Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Juventude – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Vasco da Gama hosts Juventude in a Brazilian Serie A clash where Vasco shows a clear home advantage, recently performing better with more wins and scoring consistency, while Juventude struggles on the road with poor form and goal-scoring issues. This sets a stage favoring a Vasco victory with a likely low-margin game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vasco da Gama has won 50% of their last 10 home matches, scoring in every match, whereas Juventude only won 20% of their last 10 away fixtures with a poor scoring record and higher loss rate.
- Historically, Vasco da Gama and Juventude are fairly evenly matched, but recent meetings suggest draws or narrow victories; earlier season matches ended 2-0 for Juventude at home and 1-1 at Vasco's venue.
- No significant injury concerns reported for either side that would dramatically affect starting lineups or tactics.
- No adverse weather or travel complications reported; Vasco benefits from playing at their home stadium with fan support.
- Both teams fight for crucial points in mid-to-lower table positions, but Vasco da Gama’s slightly better recent form gives stronger motivation to capitalize at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home: -227, Away: +575, Draw: +345 | Home Win | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | Home -1.25: +100, Away +1.25: -120 | Home -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -102, Under 2.75: -118 | Under 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vasco da Gama 359% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Vasco da Gama at 359% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 62.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Vasco da Gama to win
Predicted Score: 2-1