Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Cruzeiro currently sits 2nd in the Brazil Campeonato, showing strong form and an unbeaten record in recent meetings against Vasco da Gama. Vasco da Gama, positioned 16th, have shown resilience with a mix of draws and wins but tend to concede more goals. Both teams have relatively stable attacking output, each scoring around 1-1.2 goals per match recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro won 3, drew 1, lost 1 in their last 5 matches with average goals scored/conceded around 1.2. Vasco da Gama won 3, drew 2 and remain unbeaten in last 5 but with lower scoring and defense conceding often.
- Cruzeiro has a superior H2H record with 12 wins to Vasco's 6 in recent meetings, and has not lost in the last 6 encounters (3 wins, 3 draws).
- Vasco da Gama are missing multiple key players including Adson, Tche Tche, Jair, which weakens their midfield and defense. Cruzeiro has suspensions for Gabriel Barbosa and Lucas Villalba and some injuries which affect squad depth but less drastic.
- Match at Vasco's home ground may give them slight crowd advantage but Cruzeiro's better league position and moral edge offset it.
- Cruzeiro fights for top league honors and closer promotion ambitions, Vasco concentrates on avoiding relegation, which may pressure Vasco more defensively and favor Cruzeiro's proactive style.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cruzeiro: 151, Vasco_da_Gama: 189, Draw: 225 | Cruzeiro | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Cruzeiro: -124, Vasco_da_Gama: -106 | Cruzeiro -0 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over: -112, Under: -118 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cruzeiro 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Cruzeiro at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cruzeiro moneyline win
Predicted Score: 1-2