Match Analysis: Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs St. Louis City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
Game Overview
Vancouver Whitecaps FC host St. Louis City SC in an MLS match where Vancouver sits mid-top table with a solid defensive record and good home form, whereas St. Louis is struggling to make a playoff push and is considered a long shot this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vancouver Whitecaps rank 6th in xG with 42.9 expected goals and have allowed 29 goals (~1.12 per game) with 11 clean sheets. Vancouver has been relatively solid defensively and possesses a higher average points per game (1.77) compared to St. Louis City's inconsistent form.
- Recent H2H data is limited due to St. Louis City being a newer MLS expansion team; however, Vancouver's home advantage and experience in the league give them an edge.
- No significant injury data available indicates major absences impacting either side's starting lineup.
- BC Place offers strong home support for Vancouver, and travel fatigue could mildly affect St. Louis City on an away trip. St. Louis City's long odds in the MLS Cup reflect a challenging season.
- Vancouver aims to solidify their playoff positioning, bringing higher motivation levels, while St. Louis City SC faces an uphill battle with lower playoff probability, possibly affecting morale.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vancouver Whitecaps FC -188, St. Louis City SC +420, Draw +360 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Vancouver Whitecaps FC -1.5 +129, St. Louis City SC +1.5 -172 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5 +113, Under 3.5 -152 | Under 3.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vancouver Whitecaps FC to win on moneyline, covering -1.5 goal spread, and the game to stay under 3.5 total goals.
Predicted Score: 2-0