Match Analysis: Valencia vs Villarreal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Mestalla Stadium
Game Overview
La Liga matchup between Valencia and Villarreal with Villarreal currently above Valencia in the table and showing stronger recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Villarreal shows strong form at 5-2-2 recent record compared to Valencia's weaker 2-4-3. Valencia lost 4 of their last 5 games and has a poor record against the spread recently.
- Historically competitive but Villarreal holds a slight advantage with a better league standing and goal difference (+6 vs -4). Previous match in Feb 2025 ended 1-1.
- No critical absences widely reported for either side in available data, suggesting near full-strength squads.
- Game played in Mestalla, Valencia's home ground, which offers some home advantage.
- Villarreal motivated to solidify top table position; Valencia under pressure from poor form looking to recover at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valencia: +220, Villarreal: +119, Draw: +250 | Villarreal | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Valencia: -0.25 -108, Villarreal: -0.25 -112 | Villarreal -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -118, Under 2.5: -102 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Villarreal 25% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Villarreal at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Villarreal win on the moneyline; Villarreal -0.25 on the spread; Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 0-1