Match Analysis: Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Game Overview
Union Berlin hosts Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga clash featuring mid-table and struggling sides respectively. Union Berlin has shown strong offensive form but with defensive vulnerabilities, while Hamburger SV is trying to recover after a poor start to the season with their first win recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Union Berlin has had a mixed start with 2 wins and 2 losses, showing strong attacking ability (scoring 3+ goals in recent matches) but defensive lapses. Hamburger SV is struggling overall but recently secured their first win, losing early matches and conceding heavily.
- In the last meetings dating back to 2018/19 in 2.Bundesliga, Union Berlin has been dominant, winning at home and drawing away. The teams last faced in 2.Bundesliga, showing clear advantage to Union Berlin at home.
- Union Berlin's key striker Oliver Burke trained individually this week after a hat-trick last match; the coach is suspended and will not be on bench. Hamburger SV has some injured and suspended players affecting squad depth.
- Union Berlin enjoys full home support at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The coach suspension may slightly impact Union's tactical adjustments but home advantage remains significant.
- Union Berlin aims to consolidate mid-table position and build on attacking momentum. Hamburger SV is motivated to escape relegation zone and build on their first win of the season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Home: 100, Away: 260, Draw: 260 | Home Win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Union Berlin -0.5: 100, Hamburger SV +50: -120 | Union Berlin -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: 100, Under 2.75: -120 | Over 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Union Berlin 116% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Union Berlin at 116% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Union Berlin to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 spread, with a moderately high total goals over 2.75 prediction due to both teams' scoring trends.
Predicted Score: 3-1