Match Analysis: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: An der alten Försterei, Berlin, Germany
Game Overview
Union Berlin (13th) hosts 1. FC Heidenheim (16th) in a crucial Bundesliga encounter. Union has drawn their last four matches, while Heidenheim is undefeated in 10 of their last 11 head-to-heads against Union. Both teams have significant injury concerns, making squad depth and tactical flexibility important factors for this match[2][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Union Berlin has been inconsistent, struggling to convert draws into wins. Heidenheim, despite their lower league position, has shown resilience, especially against Union Berlin. Both teams have had mixed results recently, but Heidenheim's streak against Union is notable[5].
- Heidenheim is undefeated in 10 of their last 11 matches against Union Berlin in all competitions[5].
- Union Berlin: Diogo Leite (facial injury), Aljoscha Kemlein (foot surgery), and several others (Juranovic, Skov, Roussillon) are not fully fit. Heidenheim: Kevin Müller (concussion) is out, Sirlord Conteh and Leo Scienza are struggling with injuries, but Niklas Dorsch returns from suspension[5].
- No significant external factors reported. The match is played at Union Berlin's home ground, which could provide a slight edge[2].
- Both teams are fighting for crucial points at the tail end of the season—Union to secure safety and Heidenheim to avoid relegation, raising the stakes for this fixture[2][5].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Union Berlin: 120 | Draw: 250 | Heidenheim: 230 | Draw or Heidenheim (Double Chance) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Heidenheim 25 -108 | Union Berlin -0.25 -112 | Heidenheim or Draw (Heidenheim +0.25) | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Union Berlin 30% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Union Berlin at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Union Berlin's recent tendency to draw, their injury issues, and Heidenheim's historical advantage in this fixture, the match is likely to be tightly contested. However, Heidenheim's form and psychological edge suggest they have a slight advantage or at least the ability to avoid defeat[5].
Predicted Score: 1-1