Match Analysis: Udinese vs Monza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 10:30 AM UTC
- Location: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine, Italy
Game Overview
This Serie A fixture features Udinese hosting Monza. Udinese is positioned 12th in the league with 40 points, showing a mid-table stability, while Monza is struggling at the bottom of the table in 20th place with only 15 points. Udinese has demonstrated a relatively solid performance this season, whereas Monza has faced challenges throughout, including a series of losses and low scoring output. The match holds importance for Udinese to consolidate their mid-table safety and for Monza to fight against relegation.
Key Factors to Consider
- Udinese holds a better league position (12th, 40 points) compared to Monza (20th, 15 points). Udinese's recent form and home advantage offer them an edge. Monza has struggled significantly, with a poor away record and a negative goal difference indicating defensive vulnerabilities and scoring difficulties. Key players for Udinese include forwards like Lucca (10 goals), and midfielders/defenders contributing assists. Monza's top scorers like Thauvin and Mota have not been able to consistently produce results in recent matches.
- The two teams have met once this season, with Udinese securing better overall form. Historical head-to-head statistics favor Udinese given their higher league standing and more balanced seasonal performance.
- No detailed injury reports are currently available from the provided data, but monitoring Udinese and Monza lineups shortly before kickoff is advisable for any last-minute changes.
- The match is played at Udinese’s Bluenergy Stadium, offering them home support. Weather or pitch conditions are not stated but could influence play. Motivation is also a factor with Udinese seeking safety and Monza battling relegation.
- Udinese aims to secure mid-table safety and possibly improve their standing, while Monza is highly motivated to gain crucial points to avoid relegation, adding intensity to their pursuit despite recent poor form.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Udinese: -200, Monza: 525, Draw: 340 | Udinese win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Udinese: -122, Monza: 102 | Udinese -1 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -118, Under 2.5: -102 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Udinese -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Udinese is the favored team to win this match, leveraging home advantage, better form, and stronger squad depth. Monza’s struggles and poor away results make an upset less likely, but their motivation to fight for survival could lead to a closely contested game with limited scoring.
Predicted Score: 2-0