Match Analysis: Udinese vs Bologna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine, Italy
Game Overview
The upcoming Serie A match between Udinese (ranked 10th) and Bologna (ranked 5th) is set to take place at Udinese's home ground, Bluenergy Stadium. Bologna holds a stronger position in the league and has demonstrated better recent form, while Udinese has shown resilience with a mixture of wins and draws. Both teams have competitive attacking options but defense has been mixed.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bologna has the edge in league standings and recent form, currently 5th with 13 points, compared to Udineseβs 10th with 12 points. Udinese's last five matches include a notable 3-2 home win over Lecce, showing attacking efficiency but potential defensive frailty. Bologna has delivered strong away performances and is relatively disciplined defensively with 3 clean sheets this season.
- Recent head-to-head matchups have been closely contested with several draws (0-0, 1-1), a 3-0 Udinese win late 2023, and a 3-0 Bologna win earlier in 2023. This indicates no clear dominance, with results evenly split and typically low-scoring matches.
- Bologna will miss Odgaard due to a left knee bruise, affecting their midfield creativity. No major injuries reported from Udinese, though their squad depth is tested due to fixture congestion.
- The match is played at Udineseβs home stadium, which can provide some advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be normal for late November in Udine. Both teams are motivated to gain points to improve league standing, especially Bologna aiming to maintain their top 5 position.
- Bologna, sitting higher in the table, are motivated to secure away points to press for European qualification. Udineseβs motivation is to defend their home turf and close the gap in the table. Both teams have recent history of hard-fought results, indicating a competitive and tactical game.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna: 1.12, Udinese: 2.75, Draw: 2.15 | Bologna to win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Bologna: -0.25 @ -125, Udinese: +25 @ +105 | Bologna -0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 1.02, Under 2.25: 1.22 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna 23% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Bologna at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is expected to be tightly contested. Given the odds and team form, Bologna are slight favorites but Udinese's home advantage and recent attacking form suggest a competitive match possibly ending in a draw or a narrow away win.
Predicted Score: Bologna 1 – 0 Udinese