Match Analysis: Toulouse vs Rennes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 8:05 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Municipal, Toulouse
Game Overview
Toulouse, currently 8th in Ligue 1 with 13 points, hosts 9th-place Rennes, with 11 points. Both teams are closely matched and motivated to improve standings. Toulouse has slight edge at home historically.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toulouse has shown moderate home strength and better recent form with 13 points; Rennes slightly behind with 11 points and tends to adopt a defensive approach. Both teams have a tendency for low-scoring matches.
- Over last 23 home meetings, Toulouse has 9 wins, 7 draws, Rennes 7 wins; overall scores tightly balanced (26-25 goals). Most common results between these teams at Toulouse are low-scoring 0-0 or 0-1 outcomes.
- Notable absences include Toulouseβs Rasmus Nicolaisen and Mark McKenzie, plus Rennesβ Umit Akdag and several others, potentially limiting attacking potency and defensive solidity for both sides.
- Match at Toulouseβs home ground offers home advantage; no significant external disruptions reported.
- Both mid-table teams are motivated to progress up the Ligue 1 standings early in the season, fostering a competitive but cautious match approach.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toulouse: +107, Draw: +245, Rennes: +240 | Toulouse | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Toulouse -0.25: -125, Rennes +25: +105 | Toulouse -0.25 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toulouse 14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toulouse at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Toulouse win; Spread: Toulouse -0.25; Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0