Match Analysis: Toulouse vs Brest – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Game Overview
Toulouse hosts Brest in a Ligue 1 match at Stadium de Toulouse. Toulouse currently ranks 8th in the league and Brest 10th, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Toulouse won their opening match 1-0 and Brest drew 3-3 in their last game. This encounter is expected to be competitive given close rankings and recent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toulouse has started the season positively, winning their opening match with a strong defensive showing. Recently, they scored 8 goals in 5 matches with key players like Kamory Doumbia as top scorer (2 goals) and consistent attacking threat from Aron DΓΈnnum. Brest showed offensive capability with a 3-3 draw recently against Lille but also suffered a heavy 0-6 defeat earlier in the season, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities.
- Last season, Toulouse and Brest played twice with Toulouse holding a narrow advantage. Their historical encounters have been close, including a recent 0-0 draw at Toulouseβs home. The teams appear evenly matched at this venue, making home advantage a key consideration.
- Toulouse faces some injury issues with Abu Francis (calf) and Rafik Messali (meniscus) out until early September, and Niklas Schmidt expected back late September. Brest's injury status is not clearly reported but no significant absences are noted.
- The match kicks off mid-afternoon in Toulouse, with no adverse weather or extraordinary conditions reported. Both teams will likely have full fitness aside from noted injuries. Motivation may be influenced by recent good form for Toulouse and Brestβs need for points after a mixed start.
- Toulouse aims to consolidate their strong start to the season and build momentum at home. Brest, sitting lower in the table, will seek to bounce back from their last draw and avoid falling behind in Ligue 1 standings early on.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brest: 2.45, Toulouse: 1.06, Draw: 2.45 | Toulouse win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Brest: 25 at 1.05, Toulouse: -0.25 at 1.25 | Toulouse -0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: 1.08, Under 2.5: 1.12 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toulouse 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toulouse at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on form, home advantage, and squad strength, Toulouse are favored to win but Brest could challenge for points given their offensive potential. A narrow home victory or possibly a draw seems most likely.
Predicted Score: 1-0