Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Game Overview
Toronto FC, ranked low this season with 5 wins and a -9 goal difference, face Orlando City SC, a stronger side positioned higher with 14 wins, but currently struggling with three games without a win and recent away form issues.
Key Factors to Consider
- Orlando City averages 1.6 points per match with a solid defensive record including a 24.2% clean sheet rate, while Toronto FC struggles offensively and defensively, conceding 42 goals and ranking 30th in expected goals differential.
- Orlando City has dominated recent meetings, winning 6 of the last 7 against Toronto FC, extending Toronto's MLS winless streak against them to 10 games; however, Toronto broke a long winless run with a win in April 2024.
- No key injury information available for either side, but Orlandoβs regular starting goalkeeper Pedro Gallese is expected to start versus Torontoβs Sean Johnson.
- Orlando has struggled on the road with no wins in their last three away matches, while Toronto, playing at home, may leverage home-field advantage despite poor form.
- Both teams face pressure: Toronto to end their season-long slump and Orlando to halt their recent poor run; this implies a competitive match where both sides have incentive to avoid defeat.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Orlando City SC: -107, Toronto FC: 250, Draw: 290 | Draw | β β β ββ 62% |
Spread | Orlando City SC -0.5: -111, Toronto FC +50: -119 | Toronto FC +0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -172, Under 2.5: 128 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Orlando City SC 56% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 48% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Orlando City SC at 56% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Draw
Predicted Score: 1-1