Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs Nashville SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-24
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Game Overview
The MLS match between Toronto FC and Nashville SC will take place at BMO Field, Toronto. Toronto FC have won 3 of their last 10 meetings with Nashville SC, while Nashville SC has 4 wins and 3 draws between the sides. Recent form favors Nashville SC, who have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches, conceding fewer goals on average than Toronto FC. Both teams show a moderate tendency for under 2.5 goals in their games, and the average goals per match in their head-to-head fixtures is around 2.8.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto FC have won 1, drawn 1, and lost 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Nashville SC are in better form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, scoring on average 1.2 goals and conceding only 0.6 per match.
- The head-to-head record shows Nashville SC with a slight edge, winning 4 times out of 10 matches against Toronto FC's 3 wins and 3 draws. The average goals per match in these encounters is approximately 2.8. Historically, Nashville SC tend to win slightly more often both home and away against Toronto FC.
- No specific injury data available from the provided search results, suggesting no major reported injuries impacting key players for either team at this time.
- The match is held at Torontoβs home ground, BMO Field, which can provide an advantage to Toronto FC. Weather and travel fatigue are not indicated as significant factors.
- Nashville SC's recent unbeaten streak and stronger defensive record suggest higher motivation to maintain their form, while Toronto FC will be motivated to capitalize on home advantage and improve their inconsistent recent form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville_SC: 146, Toronto_FC: 175, Draw: 244 | Nashville SC win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Nashville_SC: -0.5, Toronto_FC: 50 | Nashville SC -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over_2.5: -115, Under_2.5: -115 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Nashville SC at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nashville SC are favored to edge out Toronto FC given better recent form, defensive solidity, and head-to-head statistics, though Torontoβs home advantage keeps the match competitive.
Predicted Score: 1-2