Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs D.C. United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Game Overview
Toronto FC will host D.C. United in the MLS regular season at BMO Field. Toronto FC is struggling this season with a record of 0-2-4 and only 2 points, positioned 14th in the standings. D.C. United currently holds a slightly better position at 12th. The matchup is expected to be competitive but tilted towards Toronto FC given home advantage, although their recent struggles and form suggest a tight contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto FC has been underperforming with no wins in their first six matches and only 2 points accumulated. D.C. United has had marginally better results but also lacks consistent winning form. Both teams have displayed defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistency in offense.
- This season, Toronto FC and D.C. United have met once before, reflecting a balanced rivalry with no clear dominance. Historically, encounters have been closely contested and often low-scoring.
- No specific injury data is provided for either team in the available information, suggesting rosters might be near full strength or no major absences have been reported.
- Playing at BMO Field provides Toronto FC with home advantage. The match time in the evening may influence conditions but no extreme weather or external disruptions are reported.
- Both teams are motivated to improve their poor early-season form. Toronto FC especially needs to capitalize on home matches to gain points, while D.C. United looks for consistency to climb the standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto FC: 130, D.C. United: 190, Draw: 265 | Toronto FC win | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Toronto FC: -0.25 102, D.C. United: +25 -122 | Toronto FC -0.25 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -120, Under 2.5: 100 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto FC 24% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toronto FC at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is likely to be close with a slight edge to Toronto FC due to home advantage but given both teamsβ inconsistent form, a draw or narrow margin win for either side is plausible. Expect a cautious game with moderate scoring.
Predicted Score: 1-1