Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Game Overview
Toronto FC hosts CF Montreal in an MLS matchup with both teams struggling this season, but Toronto FC shows marginally better defensive stats and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto FC (5-8-13) have a poorer offense with only 27 goals scored and a -7 goal differential, conceding 34 goals at 1.31 per game. CF Montreal (4-8-15) scores slightly more but has a similar defensive frailty, conceding about 1.79 goals per game.
- Recent matches have been competitive and tight with no clear dominant team. Toronto benefits from playing at home which has historically improved their results slightly.
- No major injuries reported for key players in either team, with starting goalkeepers Sean Johnson (Toronto) and Thomas Gillier (Montreal) expected to start.
- BMO Field provides Toronto FC a home advantage. Weather and travel factors favor Toronto as the home side.
- Both teams are near the bottom of the table with low point averages (Toronto 0.88, Montreal slightly lower), motivated to avoid falling further behind in playoff contention.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto FC: -104, CF Montreal: 250, Draw: 280 | Toronto FC | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Toronto FC -0.5: -109, CF Montreal +50: -122 | Toronto FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -147, Under 2.5: 110 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto FC 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Toronto FC to win, Spread: Toronto FC -0.5, Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0