Match Analysis: Tondela vs Sporting Lisbon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio João Cardoso
Game Overview
Sporting Lisbon, currently 2nd in the Primeira Liga with 19 points, hosts struggling Tondela who sit 17th with 5 points. Sporting has a strong away record this season, while Tondela has been poor at home and overall. The quality gap and form clearly favor Sporting Lisbon.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sporting Lisbon maintains a high win rate (around 66% in recent away matches), showcasing consistent attacking and defensive solidity, whereas Tondela has managed only 2 wins out of 16 historical meetings and currently endures poor form at home with no recent wins.
- Out of 16 matches between them, Sporting has won 11 (69%), Tondela 2 (13%), with 3 draws (18%), indicating a clear historical dominance by Sporting Lisbon.
- No significant injuries reported for either side that would materially affect expected performance.
- No known external or weather factors impacting the match. The game is at Tondela's home ground but their weak home performance limits home advantage effect.
- Sporting Lisbon aims to consolidate their position near the top of the league and is motivated by strong title contention, whereas Tondela faces relegation danger and will be desperate to gain points but lacks quality.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +875, draw: +500, away: -390 | away | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | sporting_minus_1.75: -102, tondela_plus_1.75: -118 | sporting -1.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over_3: -118, under_3: -102 | under 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sporting Lisbon 631% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sporting Lisbon at 631% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 72.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sporting Lisbon will win comfortably, keeping a clean sheet, in a low-scoring game under 3 goals.
Predicted Score: 0-2