Match Analysis: Tondela vs CF Estrela – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio João Cardoso
Game Overview
Tondela, desperate for points and playing at home, face Estrela Amadora who arrive as slight underdogs with some defensive resilience but poor away form. Both teams have struggled offensively and have a history of low-scoring, tightly contested matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tondela have yet to win this season, scoring only 2 goals and conceding 10 in 5 matches, showing offensive struggles and defensive weaknesses. Estrela Amadora have a poor away record losing 7 of last 8, but tend to defend more reliably on road.
- Only two previous official matches, both drawn 0-0, indicating a balanced matchup with low scoring tendencies.
- No specific injuries reported affecting starting lineups for either side, lineups expected as predicted.
- Match played at Tondela’s home ground, Estádio João Cardoso, where they have yet to win this season, adding pressure to perform in front of home fans.
- Tondela's urgent need to avoid relegation and break winless streak strongly motivates them, while Estrela have moderate motivation but poor away results suggest difficulty capitalizing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Tondela: +121, Estrela: +250, Draw: +205 | Tondela | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Spread | Tondela -0.25: -112, Estrela +25: -108 | Tondela -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2 goals: -110, Under 2 goals: -110 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tondela 11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tondela to win on moneyline, Tondela -0.25 on spread, Under 2 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0