Match Analysis: Swansea City vs Millwall – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Swansea City Home Stadium
Game Overview
Swansea City hosts Millwall in a closely matched EFL Championship fixture where home form contrasts with Millwall's stronger away record, making this a balanced contest with narrow margins.
Key Factors to Consider
- Swansea holds a 2-2-2 overall record with stronger points at home (5) than away (3), while Millwall performs well away with a 2-1-0 record and 7 points away. Millwall has been more consistent lately with 10 points in 6 matches versus Swansea's 8.
- Recent head-to-head data points to generally close contests with no consistent dominance; odds and AI models suggest a slight edge to Swansea as favorites but a wide spread of possible outcomes.
- No explicit injury updates found, implying no major absences impacting key players on either side.
- Match played at Swansea's home ground favors Swansea slightly; weather and other environmental factors are neutral with no indication of disruptions.
- Both teams seek to consolidate their mid-table status early in the season; Millwallβs away success and Swansea's home solidity suggest moderate motivation from both.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Swansea City: 103, Draw: 212, Millwall: 270 | Swansea City | β β β ββ 63% |
Spread | Swansea City -0.5: 108, Millwall +50: -128 | Swansea City -0.5 | β β β ββ 59% |
Over/under | Over 2: -125, Under 2: 105 | Under 2 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Swansea City 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Swansea City to win on the moneyline, -0.5 spread in favor of Swansea, and a total goals under 2.
Predicted Score: 1-0