Match Analysis: Sunderland vs Queens Park Rangers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 3 May 2025
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England
Game Overview
Sunderland (4th in Championship) hosts QPR (15th) in a crucial late-season EFL Championship clash. Earlier this season saw a 0-0 draw[2], but historical data shows Sunderland's dominance with 8 wins in 19 meetings compared to QPR's 4[3].
Key Factors to Consider
- Sunderland's higher league position and home advantage contrast with QPR's mid-table consistency. Recent head-to-head shows Sunderland unbeaten in last 5 meetings (4W-1D)[5].
- 8-7-4 in Sunderland's favor overall, with 27 goals for Sunderland vs 20 for QPR[3]. Last meeting ended 0-0[2].
- No specific injury reports available; assume full squads.
- Late-season motivation differences – Sunderland potentially chasing promotion playoffs vs QPR's limited stakes.
- Sunderland's playoff push creates higher urgency compared to QPR's mid-table security.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | SUN -160 | QPR +440 | Draw +270 | Sunderland ML (-160) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | SUN -1 (+105) | QPR +1 (-125) | Sunderland -1 (Covers) | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (+102) | Under 2.5 (-122) | Over 2.5 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Sunderland -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sunderland win with moderate confidence given home advantage, league position, and historical dominance. Expect 2+ goals against QPR's leaky defense.
Predicted Score: 2-1 Sunderland