Match Analysis: Strasbourg vs Lille – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 4:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Game Overview
Strasbourg hosts Lille in a Ligue 1 clash with both teams showing mixed recent form and a fairly balanced head-to-head history. Lille has a slight overall advantage historically, but Strasbourg won the most recent encounter this season 2-1 at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Strasbourg has suffered 3 losses in their last 6 Ligue 1 matches while Lille has won 8 of their last 14, showing Lille's slightly better recent form. Both teams average about 1.6 goals scored per match but Strasbourg concedes slightly more on average (1.2 vs. 1.0 for Lille).
- Across 27 clashes since 2003, Lille leads with 13 wins to Strasbourg's 6, with 8 draws. Recent encounters show Strasbourg unbeaten in their last 5 games vs Lille (3 wins, 2 draws). The last meeting ended 2-1 to Strasbourg at home.
- No specific injury data is available; assume relatively full squads given lack of reports.
- The match is at Strasbourg's home ground, Stade de la Meinau, which is a factor favoring the home team. Kickoff at mid-afternoon UTC minimizes weather or travel fatigue effects.
- Both teams are mid-table and equal on points; local pride and improving league position likely motivate strong performances. Strasbourg playing at home may have extra incentive to maintain positive recent form against Lille.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Strasbourg: +171, Lille: +141, Draw: +260 | Strasbourg | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Strasbourg: +105, Lille: -125 | Strasbourg +0 (Draw No Bet) | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -112, Under 2.75: -108 | Under 2.75 goals | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Strasbourg 22% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Strasbourg at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Strasbourg to win on the moneyline with a predicted low-scoring close match favoring the home advantage.
Predicted Score: 2-1 Strasbourg